Colorado State University (CSU) has revised its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, now predicting a significantly more active season with 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, driven by near-record warm sea surface temperatures and anticipated La Niña conditions.
Colorado State University (CSU) revised its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday, estimating a markedly more active season than initially projected.
The updated outlook anticipates 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, an increase of two storms from previous forecasts. According to the forecast, sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are near record warm levels. In its report, CSU wrote that the warm temperatures create a conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
Additionally, the forecast anticipates cool neutral ENSO or La Niña conditions during the peak of the season, which typically result in reduced levels of vertical wind shear, which further facilitates the development of hurricanes.
The CSU team, led by Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, noted the influence of Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane that formed early in the season. Beryl’s early formation and intensity are seen as indicators of a hyperactive season ahead. The team’s confidence in this forecast is described as above-normal, based on the current large-scale environmental conditions favoring hurricane activity.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the researchers wrote. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Data metrics underpinning the forecast include predictions of 120 named storm days, 50 hurricane days, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 230. The ACE index measures the energy output of tropical cyclones and provides a comprehensive indicator of overall seasonal activity. The forecast also anticipates a Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity level of 240 percent, well above the long-term average of 135 percent.
Landfall probabilities have also been revised upwards. The probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline is now estimated at 57 percent, compared to the historical average of 43 percent. The U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, faces a 31 percent probability, while the Gulf Coast has a 38 percent chance. The Caribbean is predicted to have a 62 percent probability of experiencing at least one major hurricane.