AccuWeather forecasts 6 to 10 named storms in the Atlantic between late August and September, posing heightened risks for Florida as the peak of hurricane season coincides with near-record sea surface temperatures.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 6 to 10 named storms in the Atlantic between late August and the end of September, a forecast that aligns with historical averages but raises concerns for Florida as it enters the peak of hurricane season.
With sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico nearing record highs, conditions are favorable for storm development. Florida, with its extensive coastline and vulnerable inland areas, is particularly at risk during this period.
“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September. There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “The statistical peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and we expect the Atlantic basin to be incredibly active.”
Inland flooding remains a concern, according to the report, as hurricanes and tropical storms can cause severe damage far from the coast. Hurricane Debby, which recently caused widespread flooding in Florida before moving up the Eastern Seaboard, caused $28 billion in damage and economic losses across the United States, according to an AccuWeather preliminary estimate published this month.
The $28 billion estimate encompassed both direct damage—such as property destruction and infrastructure losses—and indirect economic impacts, including disruptions to the tourism industry during its peak season, supply chain interruptions, and lost wages. The storm’s slow pace exacerbated its impact, the meteorology group noted, leading to prolonged business closures and widespread travel disruptions, including the cancellation of thousands of flights.
In Florida, the Gulf Coast bore the brunt of the storm surge, with major population centers like Fort Myers and Tampa experiencing severe flooding. In Lee County, the surge reached 3.25 feet above the average high tide, inundating homes and businesses.
Colorado State University (CSU) revised its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in August, now predicting 23 named storms, down from the previous estimate of 25, while maintaining an outlook for an extremely active season. The updated forecast anticipates 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes, noting that despite the reduction in total storm count, the potential for significant hurricane activity remains high.
CSU’s forecast drew attention to near-record sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, which are expected to fuel storm development and intensification. The report also gave a heightened probability of major hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean, with a 56 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast, well above the historical average.