Colorado State University (CSU) researchers further reduced their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday, saying they now expect a well below-normal season as strengthening El Niño conditions are projected to suppress storm development during the peak months.
The university’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team now forecasts 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane for the Atlantic basin this season. The updated outlook is below the 1991-2020 averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes. The forecast also calls for 35 named storm days, 12 hurricane days and 2 major hurricane days.
The July forecast marks a reduction from CSU’s earlier outlooks. In April, researchers projected 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. In June, the forecast was lowered to 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The latest update reduces the forecast to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, with researchers citing increased confidence that a strong or very strong El Niño will be in place during the height of the season.
CSU said moderate El Niño conditions are already present and are likely to intensify over the next several months. El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, making it more difficult for storms to form, organize and strengthen. Researchers said they expect El Niño to be the dominant factor this season, as sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages.
The forecast calls for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, of 50, well below the long-term average of 123. ACE measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes. CSU also projects Net Tropical Cyclone activity at 60, compared with the 1991-2020 average of 135.
The report also projects lower-than-average odds of a major hurricane landfall. CSU estimates a 17 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline after July 7, compared with a historical average of 43 percent. The probability for the U.S. East Coast, including Peninsula Florida, is 8 percent, compared with an average of 21 percent. The Gulf Coast probability, including the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, is 10 percent, compared with an average of 27 percent.
Despite the reduced forecast, CSU cautioned that coastal residents should prepare each season regardless of projected activity, noting that a single landfalling hurricane can make a season damaging for the area affected.
