CSU’s revised forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predicts 23 named storms, down from 25, but still anticipates an extremely active season with 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
The Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project updated its forecast on Tuesday for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, slightly reducing the number of predicted named storms but maintaining an overall outlook for an extremely active season.
The forecast now predicts 23 named storms, down from the previous estimate of 25. Despite this adjustment, the number of anticipated hurricanes and major hurricanes remains unchanged at 12 and six, respectively.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are near record highs, the forecast states, providing favorable conditions for hurricane development. CSU’s team, led by Philip J. Klotzbach, expects the warm waters to contribute to a dynamic and thermodynamic environment conducive to storm formation and intensification. The forecast also predicts cool neutral ENSO or La Niña conditions, which typically reduce vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, further supporting hurricane activity.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the report reads.
The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline is estimated at 56 percent, well above the historical average of 43 percent. For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability is 30 percent, compared to the historical average of 21 percent. The Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas has a 38 percent chance, up from the historical average of 27 percent, while the Caribbean faces a 61 percent probability, significantly higher than the historical average of 47 percent.
CSU will issue bi-weekly forecasts throughout the peak of the season, providing updates on expected tropical cyclone activity. The next update is scheduled for August 20, with subsequent updates every other Tuesday until October.