- A poll of Florida voters shows that former President Donald Trump maintains a 20-point lead in the state, with 50 percent support compared to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 30 percent.
- Trump’s lead in Florida has narrowed by 7 percent since the previous poll in April, indicating a potential contraction in poll margins as the election cycle continues.
- The poll also indicates that DeSantis would outperform President Joe Biden in Florida by 13 points, with 49 percent supporting DeSantis and 36 percent supporting Biden.
- A majority of Floridians also expressed approval of DeSantis’ performance as governor.
New findings from a poll conducted by the Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet PolCom Lab and released on Monday sheds light on the loyalty of Florida Republicans to former President Donald Trump, despite Gov. Ron DeSantis’ entry into the presidential race.
Among GOP primary voters in the state, Trump maintains a 20-point lead over DeSantis, garnering the support of 50 percent of Floridian voters, while DeSantis holds 30 percent of the voter share.
“The poll highlights Donald Trump’s quite durable support. He does especially well with white working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former president,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at FAU. “This persistent support continues to bolster Trump’s strong and steady position within the party.”
Despite the gap between the former President and DeSantis, Trump’s lead in Florida has narrowed by 7 percent since the previous PolCom Lab poll in April, indicating a potential contraction in poll margins as the election cycle approaches the first primary date in Iowa on January 15th.
Moreover, the poll reflects that DeSantis would outperform President Joe Biden among Floridians by a margin of 13 percent, with 49 percent supporting DeSantis compared to 36 percent for Biden.
Notably, DeSantis’ lead is larger than the 10 percent advantage Trump currently holds over the sitting president. Further, a majority of Floridians, 54 percent, expressed strong or moderate approval of DeSantis’ performance as governor.
“These poll results could be an important motivator for DeSantis to promote his bid for the Republican primary, as he may be a stronger candidate against the incumbent,” said Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU. “The poll indicates that the margin held by Trump or DeSantis at this time is larger than the 3.3 percent vote difference observed in the 2020 presidential election, suggesting that Florida is shifting toward becoming a safe state for Republicans.”
The findings also suggest a shifting political landscape in Florida, with the margin held by either Trump or DeSantis surpassing the 3.3 percent vote difference observed in the 2020 presidential election, which implies that Florida may be evolving into a more secure state for Republicans.
While Trump and DeSantis dominate the GOP primary, other contenders such as Chris Christie and Mike Pence garner only marginal support, with each receiving 2 percent. However, underlying candidates Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy attract some interest, particularly among Black and Hispanic voters, with 2.5 percent and 3.6 percent respectively.
Conducted from June 27 to July 1, the poll encompassed a sample of 933 Florida voters. The survey employed automated telephone interviews for data collection and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points at a 95-percent confidence level, with higher margins of error within each subsample.