Florida’s spending is expected to outpace available general fund revenue by $1 billion in the state’s Long-Range Financial Outlook report released Friday.
While the next two years are projected to see a surplus in the general revenue fund, a deficit is projected for fiscal year 2029-2039, with state expenditures exceeding available funds by over $1 billion.
The annual report issued by the Legislative Budget Commission gives a deeper look into Florida’s fiscal position with projections as far out as 2030.
Revenue adjustments have created decreases in the projected general fund, according to the report. Tax and fee adjustments as well as trust fund transfers and redirects mean a decrease of $440 million in fiscal year 2027-2028. The decrease continues every year with a projected $855.1 million decrease in fiscal year 2028-2029 and a nearly $1.3 billion decrease in fiscal year 2029-2030.
The legislature’s actions during session earlier this year bettered the state’s financial position compared to 2025’s long-range financial outlook, the report said.
A surplus of $7.1 billion is projected for fiscal year 2027-2028 and a surplus of $3.4 billion is projected for the following year.
“Reduced spending levels combined with a modest level of revenue adjustments for Fiscal Year 2026-27 had ripple effects throughout the Outlook that led to the improved ending balances,” the report said. “Despite these gains, the 2026 Outlook projects a deficit of just over $1.0 billion in Fiscal Year 2029-30.”
Revenue adjustments will have to be made to avoid the $1 billion deficit, the report noted.
It also tracked risks to the state’s financial outlook like hurricanes, federal funding for Medicaid and other federal programs, and the potential impact of constitutional amendments.
The report comes as the state’s economic outlook is signaling increased financial restraints for residents.
“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated from this point forward. Economic pressures are still evident in the reduction of household savings, the heightened use of consumer credit, and persistently elevated inflation. How these economic challenges ultimately unfold will be pivotal to the actual performance of Florida’s economy over the next few years,” the report said.
The state’s GDP is projected to be 2.5% for fiscal year 2025-2026, down from 3.3%. That downward turn is expected to continue, hitting 2% in 2026 before an expected climb up to 2.7% the following year, according to the Florida Economic Estimating Conference.
Florida’s population growth, highlighted as a driver for economic growth, is anticipated to grow by an average of 1.20% per year between 2026 and 2030 and is expected to exceed 24 million residents in 2027.