Florida’s economy is projected to grow faster than previously anticipated over the next decade, with stronger economic output, declining unemployment and continued population and tourism growth, according to a new forecast released Thursday by Florida TaxWatch.
The organization’s third-quarter economic forecast projects average annual real gross domestic product growth exceeding 3.4% through 2036, nearly half a percentage point higher than its previous estimate. The projected growth rate is comparable to Florida’s economic expansion following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Jeff Kottkamp said reduced uncertainty surrounding federal tariffs and stronger-than-expected consumer spending have improved the economic outlook, although elevated energy costs remain a concern.
“While Florida is not out of the woods yet, peak uncertainty seems to be behind us,” Kottkamp said.
The forecast identifies artificial intelligence as a primary driver of stronger long-term economic growth, with productivity improvements expected to accelerate economic output beginning in 2028. Growth is projected to moderate during the early 2030s before strengthening again later in the decade.
The report notes that its projections account for productivity gains associated with artificial intelligence but do not incorporate potential employment displacement from the technology.
However, personal income projections remain comparatively mixed, with downward adjustments to baseline estimates and income growth failing to match anticipated GDP gains.
Florida’s labor market outlook also improved. Total nonfarm employment is projected to increase from 11.17 million workers in 2026 to 12.17 million by 2036, while unemployment is expected to decline from 4.51% to 4.07%.
The organization previously anticipated unemployment would peak in 2027. Its latest forecast instead places that peak in 2026, nearly 0.3 percentage points below the earlier projection. TaxWatch also attributed some revisions in employment projections to adjustments in baseline estimates rather than changes in anticipated economic performance.
Population growth is expected to remain positive but gradually moderate. Florida is projected to add approximately 2.5 million residents through 2036, while average daily net migration declines from 895 people in 2026 to 680 in 2036.
The report anticipates that declines in daily net migration will moderate toward the end of the forecast period, suggesting migration rates could stabilize and support continued population growth beyond 2036.
Tourism projections also improved following weaker expectations in the previous forecast. Annual visitation is expected to increase from 143.4 million visitors in 2026 to 183.3 million by 2036, representing growth of nearly 28%.
Annual tourism growth is projected to approach 2.5% by 2028 and remain near that level through 2036.
Despite the improved outlook, TaxWatch cautioned that energy prices and global financing costs remain potential obstacles. Higher travel expenses and tighter household budgets could particularly affect tourism, which remains sensitive to changes in consumer spending.
The report was developed using economic data provided through a partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group.
