Florida’s health care system is expected to come under increasing strain as the state’s elderly population is anticipated to grow sharply over the next decade, according to a new workforce projection prepared by the Florida Center for Nursing.
The analysis shows the number of residents aged 75 and older will increase by 1.4 million, a 64 percent jump between 2022 and 2037. That demographic shift is projected to drive higher demand for hospital care, emergency visits and specialized services, as several health professions face shortfalls.
Florida’s population overall was 22 million in 2022 and is projected to reach nearly 26 million in 2036, growing by about 3.7 million, or 17 percent. By comparison, population growth across the United States during the same period is expected to be 8 percent. While the state’s total population rise is significant, the pace of growth among older residents far exceeds that of younger groups.
The report also notes that age is the single largest predictor of health service use. In Florida, 100,000 adults aged 18 to 44 generate about 27,000 inpatient bed days per year, while 100,000 adults aged 65 to 74 generate about 96,000 inpatient bed days per year. Inpatient days are forecast to increase by 27 percent and emergency department visits by 21 percent through 2037, both faster than the overall population increase of 17 percent.
Regional disparities are also projected. East Central Florida, including Orlando and its surrounding counties, is projected to grow by 22 percent, while the Southwest region around Fort Myers and Naples leads with 23 percent, compared with slower growth in the Panhandle, North Central and South Florida. The report says the fastest-growing regions will face the most pressure on hospitals and long-term care providers, while slower-growing areas may still struggle with workforce shortages that limit access to care.
The report further projects high growth in demand for physician specialties that predominantly care for older adults, with slow projected growth in demand for pediatric services. National utilization data, adjusted for Florida’s hospital records, was used to calibrate demand, including more than 14 million inpatient days delivered in the state in 2022, of which about 516,000 days went to patients from out of state.
The workforce analysis warns that without changes to the state’s pipeline of health professionals, shortages could worsen as demand rises.
Licensed practical nurse adequacy is projected to fall from 85 percent in 2022 to 55 percent in 2037, while respiratory therapist adequacy is expected to drop to 39 percent by 2037. Nursing assistants, whose numbers initially exceeded demand in 2022, are expected to shift to a statewide shortage by 2026. Registered nurse supply is projected to grow in step with demand, maintaining adequacy around 93 percent through 2037, though the report cautions that regional disparities will persist, with east coast regions likely to see declines while South Florida and parts of the west coast improve slightly.
