More good news: only 85 new hospital admissions on Sunday, and 472 fewer new cases

by | Apr 5, 2020

Keep your fingers crossed, because Florida just posted another day of declining hospital admissions from coronavirus, and the lowest number of new COVID-19 cases since March 30th. The state’s hospital admissions peaked four days ago, at 177 new patients admitted, and that number has declined every day since. Today saw just 85 new patients admitted to the hospital. See the similar story we posted after last night’s numbers here.

For those who might be wondering where we’re getting our data – many comments on our Facebook page indicate people are still focusing on the total number of cases, and not the daily number of new admissions – we’re pulling our numbers straight from the evening report posted each day on Florida’s emergency management website. Please understand that while we’re tracking the total number of cases, we’re less concerned with that number because it doesn’t account for discharged patients. Unfortunately, we still don’t have that data, but we are actively working to get it. We’re more concerned about the daily number of new hospital admissions, which gives us a clear picture of the pressure being put on our health care system.

Here’s the latest chart showing the decline in daily admissions (blue bars). Obviously, any new admissions without accounting for discharges will add to the total admission number, which is why the red line keeps going up. The good news is that it’s not going up ever more steeply, which means we’re NOT currently seeing exponential growth:

Still not convinced this is good news? Consider the widely-cited Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s models, which projected as late as April 1st that Florida would have 3,701 patients hospitalized with coronavirus by today – even their minimum projected number is off by more than 1,000 patients (2,562 projected vs. 1,555 actual):

As with hospitalizations, the number of new cases of COVID-19 we’re finding daily is also not growing exponentially anymore. Today saw a large decline versus yesterday’s number of new cases – 472 fewer, to be exact – despite 9,710 test results:

The test result rate is also another rosy data point. If the virus is spreading exponentially, we should logically expect a higher percentage of tests to come back positive with each passing day. That’s not the case. Despite relatively steady testing, we’re actually seeing a slight decline in the percentage of positive tests, and just 8.29% on Sunday, well below the cumulative average of around 10 percent.

Again, it’s worth noting that we’ve seen a lull in these numbers before, only for them to spike back up again. But a slowdown like this, regardless of whether it holds up in the longer-run, means we’re slowing the growth of the virus and taking pressure off the health care system.

Keep up the good work and keep your fingers crossed for another good day tomorrow.

4 Comments

  1. Derek

    Look, no doubt, it’s good news. But it’s three days of good news, not four. New admissions went waaaaay up from April 1 to April 2. Then down from April 2 to 3, April 3 to 4, and April 4 to 5. Like I said, good news, but that’s only three days. The peak was three days ago, not four. Y’all made the same error yesterday when you said three days when it was two.

    Reply
  2. David Martin

    The latest IHME Univ. of Washington model still has us at the foot of a steep slope of deaths. There’s good reason to think that Floridians have been infecting each other in substantial numbers over the past two weeks or so. Even though the rate of spread may be decreasing thanks to keeping people apart, the number of infected people seems to have increased quite a lot over the past couple of weeks.

    Someone compared the models to Dicken’s ghosts of Christmas. Scenarios of what might be under specified conditions.

    Reply
  3. Andy Showen

    Could you update the curve? Thx

    Reply
  4. Angela

    I’ve been following the numbers on the CDC site. I would like to know the actual number of deaths with a positive test. The guidance to vital statistics states the coroner should use C-19 as the cause of death, even without a positive test, if the virus is assumed to have caused or contributed to the death. Would also like to know the number of C-19 deaths in people with no significant preconditions.

    Reply

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