A new poll shows that support for two high-profile constitutional amendments on Florida’s 2024 ballot—legalizing marijuana and protecting abortion rights—remains below the 60 percent threshold required for passage, though the large constituencies of undecided voters could push the initiatives towards passage.
Support for two high-profile constitutional amendments on Florida’s 2024 ballot—legalizing marijuana and protecting abortion rights—remains below the 60 percent threshold required for passage, according to a poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research USA, although both measures were found to be gaining traction.
Amendment 3, which proposes the legalization of marijuana for adults aged 21 and older, has the backing of 56 percent of voters, according to the poll. Younger voters, particularly those aged 18 to 49, are the most supportive, with 69 percent in favor, though support decreases among older voters, with just 47 percent of those aged 50 and above endorsing the measure. The poll also indicates that support is consistent across gender lines, with 56 percent of both men and women in favor of legalization.
Demographically, the amendment receives strong backing from Democrats, 74 percent of whom support legalization, compared to 37 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Independents. Among racial groups, 57.9 percent of Black voters and approximately 56 percent of white voters, both college-educated and non-college-educated, favor the amendment. However, Hispanic voters show the highest level of opposition, with 35.4 percent indicating they would not support the measure.
Amendment 4, which aims to ensure that “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability,” also garnered 56 percent support among voters. Women are slightly more likely to support the amendment, with 59 percent in favor, compared to 54 percent of men. Age plays a role as well, with 62 percent of voters aged 18 to 49 supporting the measure, while support among older voters is somewhat lower.
Like Amendment 3, the abortion amendment holds robust support from Democrats, 80 percent of whom back it, compared to 35 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of Independents. Hispanic voters show the strongest support for this amendment at 66 percent, followed by 62 percent of Black voters. The substantial 23 percent of undecided voters appears likely to be a factor in determining the outcome, given the contentious nature of the issue.
“These results reflect growing awareness of the constitutional amendments,” said Luzmarina Garcia, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science at FAU. “In April, FAU polled on both initiatives, and at that time, these measures had 49 percent approval, indicating a 7 percent increase over the last four months.”
Despite the referenced growth in support, both amendments still fall short of the 60 percent needed for passage.
“There is evidence that emotionally charged issues, like same-sex marriage and more recently abortion, can drive higher voter turnout,” Garcia added. “However, this trend is more common in midterm elections. In a presidential election year, many voters motivated by these issues may already be planning to vote. As a result, those undecided on these amendments could swing either way in November.”