Support for Amendment 3, the Florida ballot initiative to legalize recreational marijuana, has slightly diminished to 64 percent, but still remains above the threshold needed for passage.
Support for Amendment 3, the ballot initiative to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida, has diminished slightly but remains above the threshold needed for passage, according to recent polling data.
Support for the amendment decreased marginally this month to 64 percent, while opposition increased to 27 percent, and undecided voters dropped to 9 percent, according to a poll conducted by the Tyson Group, as first reported by Florida Politics. A survey conducted in February by the same group showed that 65 percent of likely Florida voters supported the amendment, with 22 percent opposed and 13 percent undecided.
Reflecting on the poll findings, Tyson Group President and CEO Ryan Tyson, who’s firm is working in tandem with the opposition ‘Vote No on 3’ campaign, contended that Amendment 3 is “stuck in the mud” and will continue to see growing opposition upon proactive campaigning efforts.
“We expect to see the ceiling of support for the amendment decrease in weeks ahead as we ramp up our effort to defeat Amendment 3 with messages that our recent data shows can move the needle with the key coalitions that will decide this campaign,” Tyson said.
The February poll surveyed 1,764 voters, while the July follow-up included 1,500 respondents, both using live phone interviews and text-to-web methods. The margins of error were 2.33 percent and 2.53 percent, respectively.
Proponents of Amendment 3 have invested nearly $5 million in television advertisements across major markets in the state, the poll reported, subsequently asserting that despite the expenditure, the campaign has not significantly broadened its support base.
Tyson further stated within the poll summary that when voters were presented with arguments from both sides, 57 percent continued to support the amendment, while 35 percent opposed it, a figure that places the initiative below the 60 percent threshold for ratification.
He also highlighted a historical trend in Florida ballot initiatives where support typically declines as voters become more familiar with the specifics. Proponents usually aim to start with a support level at least 10 percent above the required threshold to account for this decline, Tyson said, while demonstrating that his data shows the pro-Amendment 3 campaign has not achieved the margin.
Prior polling has long indicated that the measure is poised to pass. A University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll published in November suggests strong support for the amendment’s approval, with 67 percent of respondents in favor the purchase and possession of small amounts.
The amendment has been heavily funded by Trulieve, with more than $50 million contributed as of March 31. If ratified, state economists estimate the initiative could generate between $195.6 million and $431.3 million in annual sales tax revenue. When revenue associated with new tourists drawn to the state by legalized marijuana is taken into account, state economists forecast an additional $43.6 million per year.
In a press conference held last month, Gov. Ron DeSantis cautioned that he believes the amendment goes beyond legalizing recreational marijuana and proposes eliminating all penalties, civil and criminal, for marijuana possession and use. The Governor went as far as claiming that everywhere that has legalized marijuana has been a “complete and utter failure.”
“If you actually read the text of what will go in the Constitution, it says you can have no penalties for possession or use, civil, criminal, anything for use or possession of marijuana,” the governor said. “Now the problem with that is the entire state will smell like marijuana if that passed … Colorado did this. It totally failed. California did it. It totally failed. Everywhere that’s done this has been a complete and utter failure.”
Upon outreach to the Executive Office of the Governor in June, The Capitolist was provided with a series of articles noting an increase of air pollution, increased motor vehicle deaths, and a prevalence of marijuana odor in public spaces, in support of the Governor’s claim.
The Republican Party of Florida took a formal stance against the legalization of recreational marijuana during the party’s Executive Board meeting in Orlando in May.