Florida counties could lose over $11 billion per year under the property tax relief proposal going before voters in November, according to a bill analysis.

The constitutional amendment would provide a $150,000 exemption the first year and a $250,000 exemption the next year. If approved by voters, the recurring impact on property tax revenue is projected to be $11.86 billion a year.

Whether local municipalities can handle a financial adjustment of that magnitude remains debated.

Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia, who is supportive of the property tax relief proposal, says he has uncovered $3.6 billion in excessive, wasteful local government spending and expects to find more.

This week, Ingoglia said he found Osceola County’s budget increased by over 102% since fiscal year 2019-2020.

“A budget increase of this magnitude for Osceola County is further proof that local governments have not been good stewards of taxpayer dollars. Local officials would rather keep their large, bloated budgets than offer meaningful tax relief to their residents,” said Ingoglia. “The excessive wasteful spending identified in Osceola County to the tune of $165 million is money that could have remained in the pockets of the families that live here. This is why voters will finally be able to get real property tax relief on the ballot in November.”

Others argue the issue is not that simple. President of the non-profit Florida Policy Project Jeff Brandes says the question is not “how big is the county budget” but rather “how much property tax supported revenue is being lost?”

The Florida Policy Project is a nonprofit organization that researches and promotes evidence-based policy solutions on issues including criminal justice, insurance, transportation and housing with the goal of improving quality of life in Florida.

“When evaluating a property tax cut, don’t compare the loss to the county’s total budget. That’s the wrong denominator. County budgets are made up of dozens of separate funds. Utilities, solid waste, gas taxes, impact fees, grants, transportation funds, and tourist taxes are often legally restricted to specific purposes. The fund that matters most is the General Fund. That’s the fund that pays for many core government services and is heavily supported by property taxes,” said Brandes.

He used Bay County’s $734 million budget as an example, pointing out that its General Fund is just $281.7 million, which means a potential $41 million reduction if the property tax relief proposal is passed would mean a 14.5% drop in the General Fund.

The concern, Brandes said, is whether local municipalities can maintain their independence.

“What started as a debate about taxes is becoming a debate about power. If counties and cities become dependent on state funding, local control becomes an illusion. Because when Tallahassee writes the checks, Tallahassee writes the rules. And that’s a very different amendment than the one most voters think they’re debating,” said Brandes.