Republicans hold leads in Florida’s races for governor and U.S. Senate, according to a new statewide poll of likely November voters that also shows significant regional, gender and age divisions across the electorate.
The NBC 6/Telemundo Station Group poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy from Sept. 28 through Oct. 1, found Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 48% to 41%. Another 1% supported another candidate, while 10% were undecided.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody led Democrat Angie Nixon 50% to 40%. No Party Affiliation candidate Neil Gillespie received 2%, while 8% of voters were undecided.
The poll surveyed 625 registered Florida voters who said they were likely to vote in the November general election. Respondents were interviewed live by telephone using a voter registration list that included landline and cell phone numbers. The statewide margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Donalds’ advantage was strongest in North Florida, where he led Jolly 60% to 33%, and Southwest Florida, where he led 57% to 33%. Donalds also led 55% to 33% in Central Florida.
Jolly held leads in Tampa Bay, 48% to 42%, and Southeast Florida, 52% to 36%.
Donalds led among men 55% to 33%, while Jolly led among women 49% to 41%. Jolly held narrow leads among voters younger than 50, while Donalds led among voters 50 and older.
Independent voters favored Jolly 47% to 28%, though 24% of independents remained undecided. Donalds received 87% support among Republicans, while Jolly received 85% among Democrats.
Moody showed similar regional strength in the Senate contest. She led Nixon 58% to 35% in North Florida, 54% to 35% in Central Florida and 57% to 32% in Southwest Florida. The candidates were tied at 44% in Tampa Bay, while Nixon led 48% to 42% in Southeast Florida.
Moody led among men 57% to 31%, while Nixon led among women 48% to 43%. Nixon also led among voters ages 18 to 34, while Moody held advantages among older voters.
Among registered Republicans, Moody received 91% support, compared with 87% for Nixon among Democrats. Independent voters favored Nixon 41% to 35%, with 16% undecided.
The poll found Republicans ahead statewide in both of Florida’s highest-profile races roughly a month before the November election, while showing Democrats performing more strongly in Southeast Florida, among women and among younger voters.
