Rumors are swirling that Tampa State Senator and former Green Beret Jay Collins is Governor Ron DeSantis’s top choice for Lieutenant Governor.

Collins is a sharp, capable, and loyal ally. His tenure in the State Senate is shaped by his military service and characterized by purpose-driven, effective leadership that doesn’t shy away from thorny issues. But choosing him would be a strategic misstep—one that could breathe life into the otherwise catatonic Florida Democrat Party.

Elevating Collins to the office of LG would trigger a special election in Senate District 14, a seat where Republicans hold a 5% voter registration advantage over Democrats. Recent special election results suggest GOP candidates are underperforming Donald Trump’s 2024 numbers across the board and could signal a sea-shift in public opinion towards the DeSantis brand of Florida conservatism.

In CD 1, Jimmy Patronis won by 14.6 points where Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by 37. In CD 7, Randy Fine carried the race by 14 points, while Trump had a 30-point edge. Debbie Mayfield won her Senate seat by just 8.8 points in a district Trump won by 19. Brian Hodgers won HD 32 by 10, half of Trump’s 20-point margin. Even in the Panhandle’s deep-red HD 3, Nathan Boyles underperformed Trump’s numbers by 10 points.

Senate District 14 offers no margin for error. Florida Politics called the seat “purple” in a 2022 election recap. Republicans have increased their voter registration edge over the last four years, but Trump won the district by only 7 points in 2024. Those are not the kind of numbers that guarantee a GOP hold in a low-turnout special election.

Removing Collins doesn’t just risk the seat—it weakens the Governor’s legislative support at a time when cooperation is already scarce. Apparently, the plan is to promote all DeSantis’s allies out of the legislature, and then give big special election headaches to the only legislative leaders who were willing to work with DeSantis in the most recent session.

It’s easy to see why Jay Collins is an appealing LG pick – he’s loyal, articulate, and has a combat service record that outshines even DeSantis’s record of service in the US Navy.  The Governor can admire Collins’s loyalty without handing Democrats a winnable race. While we agree that Jay Collins would make a strong Lieutenant Governor, the best place for him right now is the Florida Senate.