An annual UBS survey of global housing markets placed Miami at the top of its bubble-risk index for 2025, giving the city a score of 1.73 and ranking it ahead of Tokyo and Zurich.
The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, which tracks valuations in 25 major cities, cited Miami’s long stretch of rapid price growth and its widening disconnect from local rents and incomes.
The report noted that Miami recorded the steepest inflation-adjusted housing price gains of any city over the past 15 years. Over the last five years, prices rose by nearly 50 percent in real terms, a pace matched only by Dubai. Growth slowed in the past year, with prices increasing about 2 percent through the second quarter of 2025 while real rents declined by a similar amount. That divergence pushed Miami’s price-to-rent ratio above levels reached in 2006, the peak of the city’s prior housing bubble.
Moreover, condominium owners face large special assessments tied to new regulatory requirements to address long-deferred building maintenance. Rising insurance premiums linked to environmental risks have added to carrying costs. These factors, along with slightly lower mortgage rates and homeowner equity, have helped lift listings back to pre-pandemic levels.
“[R]egulatory changes have forced many long-time owners of older condos to address decades of deferred maintenance, resulting in substantial costs,: the report states. “Together with higher insurance premiums driven by increased environmental risks, this has further contributed to selling pressure.”
Affordability has fallen to near-record lows even though Miami remains less costly than New York or Los Angeles on an absolute basis. UBS estimated that a skilled service worker would need about five years of average income to buy a 60-square-meter apartment near the city center. Elevated mortgage rates have further weighed on affordability by raising monthly ownership costs.
Despite the headwinds, demand for Miami real estate remains strong. The report pointed to continued migration from the U.S. Northeast and West Coast, supported by Florida’s tax environment and lower relative costs compared with other coastal metros. International investment, particularly from Latin America, continues to drive activity in the luxury condominium sector.
