Florida’s economy is expected to continue growing through 2029, but at a slower pace than in the years immediately following the pandemic, according to the University of Central Florida’s (UCF) Winter 2026 Florida & Metro Forecast released this month.
The report projects Florida’s inflation-adjusted gross state product will expand at an average annual rate of 2.3% from 2026 through 2029, which would mark a moderation from 3.2% growth in 2025, with output forecast to rise 2.9% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 before ticking up to 2.4% in 2029. By the end of the forecast period, UCF expects Florida’s nominal gross state product to reach $2.23 trillion, while real output rises to $1.53 trillion.
The state’s labor market is also expected to cool, though remain comparatively stronger than the national economy. Payroll job growth, which slowed to 1.2% in 2025, is projected to average 0.6% from 2026 through 2029. Florida’s unemployment rate is forecast to rise from 3.8% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, then gradually ease to 4.0% by 2029, remaining below the U.S. rate throughout that period.
UCF expects the strongest average job growth over the next several years to come from professional and business services, education and health services, construction, state and local government, leisure and hospitality, and finance. Manufacturing and information, by contrast, are expected to weaken.
Housing remains a mixed part of the outlook. The report says higher mortgage rates and insurance costs have slowed construction, with statewide housing starts falling from 191,500 in 2022 to 158,546 in 2025. Starts are projected to slip further to 150,135 in 2027 before gradually recovering to 157,613 by 2029.
In the resale market, the statewide median price for an existing single-family home was $412,000 in February 2026, down 0.7% from a year earlier, while the median condominium price fell 1.9% to $309,000. Single-family inventory stood at 4.8 months of supply, compared with 9.3 months for condos.
The report also identifies geopolitical instability as a key near-term risk, holding that the path of Florida’s economy may depend less on tariffs than on the duration and severity of the war with Iran, warning that higher energy prices could weigh on households and raise recession and inflation risks. Even so, the forecast says continued population growth, income gains and a relatively resilient labor market should help support the state’s economy through 2029.