U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds an edge over Democrat David Jolly in a survey of Florida voters for the 2026 gubernatorial race, while U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody leads Democrat Alexander Vindman in a potential Senate matchup, according to a new poll on Wednesday from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL).
In the gubernatorial head-to-head, 42% of respondents said they would vote for Donalds, the Republican, compared with 36% for Jolly. Another 17% said they did not know who they would support, while 3% chose “someone else” and 2% said they would not vote.
Among self-identified Republicans, 79% backed Donalds and 8% backed Jolly. Among Democrats, 77% backed Jolly and 5% backed Donalds. Among voters categorized as NPA/other, Jolly led Donalds 33% to 26%, with 33% saying they did not know.
In the Senate matchup tested, 45% said they would vote for Moody, the Republican, while 38% chose Vindman, the Democrat. Fifteen percent said they did not know, with 2% selecting “someone else” and 1% said they would not vote.
By party, 82% of Republicans supported Moody and 6% supported Vindman, while 78% of Democrats supported Vindman and 5% supported Moody. Among NPA/other voters, Vindman was at 42% and Moody at 32%, with 21% unsure.
The poll also asked respondents to identify the most important problem facing Florida. Half cited affordability and cost of living. Political division and polarization was next at 12%, followed by immigration at 8%.
The survey was conducted Feb. 21 through March 2 among 786 likely Florida midterm voters, using a mix of telephone and online responses. The lab reported an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
