Florida coronavirus update: 200 new cases Saturday, trending toward 12,100 cases by month-end

by | Mar 21, 2020

 

NOTE: Our goal with this daily series is to compare Florida’s expected case growth against the number of new cases we are seeing here and in other geographic locations so that we can determine whether or not “social distancing” and “self-isolation” strategies are having any effect. We’ll continue to publish a new analysis each day when new data becomes available. These projections are not intended to spread fear, but to raise awareness about the trends we are seeing in the data. 


Florida broke a new record on Saturday, with exactly 200 new cases in the past 24 hours, bringing the state total to 753 cases so far. Our previous projections expected to see 200 cases as early as yesterday, but Friday’s tally thankfully only increased by 131 cases.

That single-day delay in breaking the 200 case barrier pushes our month-end projection down from 14,400 expected cases to a slightly better 12,100 cases – still exponential growth, but the doubling rate appears to have slowed just slightly from every two to every three days. Whether or not that holds is anyone’s guess. Here’s a look at the trend so far:

Our dataset is still far too small to be certain, but given what we’re seeing in New York State, which has exploded with more than 11,000 cases in just three weeks, Florida remains very likely to see surging case numbers in the days ahead. Here’s the exponential growth projection through the end of the month based on the latest data from the Department of Health:

On the bright side: A vast number of Floridians started to minimize their social interaction over the past week, and now that Governor Ron DeSantis ordered all bars, nightclubs and restaurants to shut down, we should start seeing the benefits at some point in the next two weeks.

More good news: about 90 percent of all COVID-19 tests in Florida since the outbreak began have come back negative: ff the 8,333 test results, 7,570 were false alarms, but there are roughly 1,000 tests pending and more being administered each day.

Here’s some additional data for you to chew on as you order take out and hunker down with family:

The age distribution for all “persons under investigation” according to the Florida Department of Health website shows only the smallest bias toward older Floridians. There’s a large number of middle-aged and even twenty-somethings under watch by health professionals. It’s important to note that this is NOT the age distribution of individuals who have tested positive for coronavirus, just people who FLDOH is actively monitoring:

Here’s the gender and age breakdowns of those Florida residents and visitors who have tested positive for the virus (this data is about 24 hours old):

We’ll post tomorrow’s data once it becomes available.

1 Comment

  1. Jonathan

    Need to shut business down like furniture stores that people keep coming to and making workers stay at work instead of home…

    Reply

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