UPDATED–A contradiction in polls: Levine, Graham, AIF polls paint different pictures of Democratic governor’s race

by | Aug 7, 2018

++++++++++++++++Updated with results of poll conducted by Associated Industries of Florida+++++++++++++++++++++++

Another day. More polls. Different results.

The Philip Levine campaign released an internal poll Tuesday morning showing the race for the Democratic nomination for governor is a statistical dead heat between former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham and Levine, the former mayor of Miami Beach.

The Levine poll shows Graham holding a 4-point lead over Levine, 26 percent to 22 percent. But that’s within the poll’s margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The new survey of voters comes 24 hours after the Graham campaign released its own internal poll showing Graham pulling ahead in the five-person Democratic race for governor, leading. Levine, by 16-points.Graham receivedthe support of 33 percent of the voters surveyed.

Meanwhile, a third poll conducted by Associated Industries of Florida and released Tuesday, is more in line with the results of Graham’s internal survey. According to Florida Politics, the AIF poll also shows Graham pulling ahead with 35 percent of the voters polled supporting Graham. That’s an 11-point increase in her numbers since AIF’s last poll was conducted in mid-July.

The AIF poll shows 23 percent of the voters remain undecided with Levine and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum tied with 14 percent.

The Levine poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, is the first survey of voters since the Democrats held their final debate last Thursday.

It shows Palm Beach real estate investor Jeff Greene in third place with 16 percent, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum with 13 percent and Orlando-area businessman Chris King with 4 percent.

The poll still shows 20 percent of the Democrats surveyed are still undecided.

While the Graham poll indicates Graham is the best-known and most popular candidate in the race, Tuesday’s poll shows Levine is the most liked and best-known of the candidates. Fifty-one percent of the voters surveyed had a favorable view of Levine.

The contradiction in surveys comes with the primary election just three weeks away.

Levine also announced Tuesday his campaign has placed a $3 million ad buy for television and radio commercials that will run over the next 11 days. The TV ads will focus on gun violence and will feature the parents of three students who were in Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School when a shooter opened fire in February.

The Levine campaign says it has been targeting direct communications with voters. It  has now completed over 125,000 door knocks, 250,000 phone calls, over 600,000 text messages and 1,000 volunteer shifts.

“The bottom line: the Levine campaign is best positioned to continue growing its support with direct voter communication efforts, a huge field effort, and a commitment by Philip Levine to continue traveling across Florida to meet with voters,” the Levine campaign said in a statement.



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