AccuWeather has issued a low-risk warning for a potential tropical disturbance near the northern Bahamas, expected to bring heavy rain, rough surf, and gusty winds to northeastern Florida or southeastern Georgia by Thursday.

AccuWeather issued a low-risk warning on Monday regarding a potential tropical disturbance expected to form near the northern Bahamas and move toward northeastern Florida or southeastern Georgia by Thursday.

The system is expected to bring heavy rain, rough surf, and gusty winds to coastal areas that have already experienced significant rainfall this month. Cities including Melbourne and Jacksonville, which have seen minimal rainfall this month, are particularly at risk, the meteorology group says.

“This appears to be a quick-moving and compact storm,” said Dan Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist at AccuWeather. “Even a less-organized storm could bring heavy rain and rough surf from the northern Bahamas to the Southeast Atlantic Coast.”

The advisory highlights concerns for a particularly active hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and a shift to a La Niña pattern are expected to contribute to favorable conditions for storm development across the Atlantic Basin. Reduced wind shear is also expected to play a role in storm intensification.

“Water temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico are what we would expect to see in early August, and we’re only in mid-June. This is very concerning as we move deeper into hurricane season,” said Alex DaSilva, Lead Hurricane Forecaster at AccuWeather. “Warm waters can act like jet fuel, helping storms develop and intensify.”