AccuWeather revised its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to predict fewer storms and hurricanes due to non-conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is now expected to be less active than initially predicted, according to a revised forecast released Tuesday by AccuWeather. The updated outlook lowers the anticipated number of named storms and hurricanes, citing unusual atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have hindered storm formation in recent weeks.

AccuWeather now projects 16 to 20 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes—those classified as Category 3 or higher—by the end of the season. The forecast marks a reduction from earlier forecasts, which predicted a more active season with a higher likelihood of storm development. The forecast also indicates that 4 to 6 storms could directly impact the United States.

Meteorologists attribute the downgraded forecast to several key factors, including widespread dry air, increased wind shear, a significant presence of Saharan dust, and an unusual cold water pocket off the coast of Africa. These conditions have combined to suppress tropical activity across the Atlantic basin, the report states, leading to the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in 27 years.

“The progression to a La Niña pattern has been slower than expected, causing more wind shear, said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “Extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin area ideal for tropical development and rapid intensification, but the surge of dry air, dust, wind shear, and cold waters off the coast of Africa have prevented most tropical waves from developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane.”

The initial forecast for the 2024 season, issued in March, predicted 18 to 22 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 6 major hurricanes, based on concerns about warm sea surface temperatures and other factors.

Florida has already experienced large-scale impacts this season following the landfall of Hurricane Debby. Broadly speaking, the storm caused $28 billion in damage and economic losses across the United States, according to an AccuWeather estimate.

The $28 billion estimate encompasses both direct damage—such as property destruction and infrastructure losses—and indirect economic impacts, including disruptions to the tourism industry during its peak season, supply chain interruptions, and lost wages. The storm’s slow pace exacerbated its impact, the meteorology group noted, leading to prolonged business closures and widespread travel disruptions, including the cancellation of thousands of flights.

In Florida, the Gulf Coast bore the brunt of the storm surge, with major population centers like Fort Myers and Tampa experiencing severe flooding. In Lee County, the surge reached 3.25 feet above the average high tide, inundating homes and businesses.