By 2030, California’s population loss will be Florida’s gain in Congressional seats, electoral college votes

by | Dec 21, 2023

  • While not yet official, experts say that after the 2030 census, California will likely lose four congressional seats (and electoral votes), while Texas and Florida are projected to gain four and three seats, respectively, according to the American Redistricting Project’s recent Census data.
  • California currently has 52 Congressional Districts, but would end up with just 48 after the next census, if current trends hold. Florida currently has 28 congressional districts and would end up with 31. In the Electoral College, California will shift from 54 to 50 votes, while Florida will shift from 30 electoral votes to 33. 
  • The shifting congressional seats reflect a wider political divide, with Democratic-governed states like California losing seats, while Republican-led states such as Florida gain, highlighting contrasting governance models in “blue” and “red” America.

(The Center Square) – California is projected to lose four congressional seats after the 2030 Census, with Texas positioned to gain four and Florida to gain three, says the American Redistricting Project based on this week’s new Census data.

According to Thad Kousser, an expert in California and national politics and a professor of political science at UC San Diego, a reduction in California’s congressional delegation could have mixed effects.

“On the one hand, if these population trends continue and California loses congressional seats, our delegation will loom slightly less large and likely wouldn’t bring in as many total dollars in district support. On the other hand, because there would be fewer Californians with needs to fulfill with these dollars, their needs could still be met,” Kousser said to The Center Square. “ What’s more, California, which did not produce a House Speaker until the Pelosi/McCarthy era, might be less threatening to other states through the sheer size of its delegation and could become more unified ideologically, both of which could bode well for its political power in DC.”

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The contrast between California and Florida, which are each governed by respective Democratic and Republican trifectas — is not only evident in projected apportionment, but in the recent national debate and ongoing sparring between California governor Gavin Newsom and Florida governor Ron DeSantis as a choice between “blue” and “red” America.

The states ARP estimates will lose at least one congressional seat — California (four seats), Illinois (two), Minnesota (one), New York (three), Oregon (one), Pennsylvania (one), and Rhode Island (one) — have Democratic governors. All but Pennsylvania, which has Republicans controlling its House and Democrats controlling its governorship and Senate, have a Democratic trifecta in which both legislative chambers and the governorship are controlled by the Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, the states ARP estimates will gain at least one congressional seat — Arizona (one seat), Florida (three), Georgia (one), Idaho (one), North Carolina (one), Tennessee (one), Texas (four), and Utah (one) — have Republican trifectas or Republican legislative control. In Arizona and North Carolina, Republicans control the entire legislature but not the governorship.


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