- Democrats aren’t keeping pace with Republican get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts
- Nearly 2 million votes have been cast so far
- The GOP has amassed a lead of nearly 100,000 ballots cast so far
- About half of all ballots this year are expected to be cast before election day
Data posted to the state Division of Elections website shows Republicans extending their lead over Democrats in total ballots cast so far. With one week to go before Election Day, 2.77 million ballots had been cast already, with over 1.9 million voting by mail and the remainder going in to cast an early, in-person ballot.
Republicans account for the lion’s share of all ballots cast, at 1.173 million, while Democrats currently sit at 1.077 million ballots, giving the Florida GOP a lead of just under 100,000 ballots.
Of course, ballots aren’t votes, and we won’t know until after the polls close on Election Day how each ballot was voted, but the party breakdown is one of the primary indicators that election watchers keep a sharp eye on. In 2018, the non-presidential election cycle, Democrats managed to pull ahead and take a 55,000 vote lead into election day. But they still lost by wide enough margins on election day ballots that Republicans won all but one statewide contest that year.
A major factor in the contest is the question of how unaffiliated or third party candidates will vote. About 486,000 ballots have been cast by unaffiliated voters so far, with the rest from third-party voters. Elections supervisors around the state are encouraging voters to take advantage of early voting. All counties are required to offer early voting through Saturday, with 18 counties electing to extend through next Sunday. In all, Florida has slightly more than 14.5 million registered voters.