DeSantis polling at 16 percent on morning of Iowa caucus

by | Jan 15, 2024



On the morning of the Iowa caucus, Governor Ron DeSantis holds 16 percent support among likely Republican caucusgoers, as indicated by the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.


As the Iowa caucuses prepare to get underway on Monday, Gov. Ron DeSantis finds himself in a precarious position, polling at 16 percent among likely Republican caucusgoers, according to the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, released on Friday.

The poll, an indicator of momentum heading into the caucus, positions DeSantis behind former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has surged to 20 percent despite a lackluster debate performance last week. Former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner with 48 percent.

DeSantis’ 16 percent marks a decrease from his initial 19 percent support when he joined the race. Despite his extensive campaigning throughout Iowa and endorsements from key state Republicans, his numbers have seen a slight dip.

“Although DeSantis entered the race last year looking like the candidate best positioned to take on Trump in Iowa, the Florida governor has stagnated in the polls, failing to gain any ground over his first Iowa Poll showing in August, when he earned 19 percent,” the Des Moines Register wrote.

The findings highlight DeSantis’ struggle in a state known for its influence on the Republican nomination process. With Trump’s modest decline and Haley’s rise, the race for second remains competitive, though Trump holds a significant lead.

An emerging factor in the caucus outcome could be the low temperatures predicted for the night, potentially affecting voter turnout. The temperature is expected to drop to around -7 degrees Fahrenheit with a possible low of -22 Fahrenheit, factoring for wind chill.

DeSantis’s strategy, focusing on grassroots campaigning and engaging Iowa’s evangelical voters, hasn’t significantly boosted his polling numbers. However, the high enthusiasm among his supporters may play a crucial role on caucus night. Team DeSantis, however, is still favoring their odds, citing high engagement among boots-on-the-ground support.

“Running through the tape, and [DeSantis] has hit his stride,” said DeSantis Campaign Manager James Uthmeier. “No snow, ice, or -20 temps can keep these energized supporters away.”

The Iowa Poll, which surveyed 705 likely Republican caucusgoers from Jan. 7-12, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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