A developing tropical rainstorm in the northern Caribbean may strengthen and impact Florida this weekend, potentially bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, and rough surf.

A tropical rainstorm developing in the northern Caribbean may impact Florida this weekend, meteorologists at AccuWeather report.

The storm, which has been gradually organizing, could strengthen as it approaches the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, bringing increased rainfall, thunderstorms, and rough surf. According to AccuWeather meteorologists, the system is elongated and lacks a well-defined center of low pressure required for classification as a tropical depression or storm. Nevertheless, it is already affecting the northern Caribbean islands, including the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, with heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms. These conditions have led to flash flooding, mudslides, and sporadic power outages.

Forecast models indicate two potential tracks for the storm as it nears Florida. If it strengthens quickly, it is likely to move northward along or just offshore of the eastern Florida Peninsula, bringing increased wind, rain, and the risk of urban flooding, waterspouts, and hazardous conditions for beachgoers and boaters. Conversely, if the storm remains relatively weak, it might drift toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico, still bringing significant rainfall and storm conditions.

Rip currents are expected to become more frequent and dangerous along the coastline, and there is a risk of urban flooding in low-lying areas.

Looking ahead to next week, there is a significant chance the storm could stall in the southeastern United States due to weakening steering breezes. This stalling could result in prolonged rainfall and flooding, particularly in coastal regions. Alternatively, if the storm follows a more northerly track, it could move back into the Atlantic, potentially affecting the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

“Steering breezes that are guiding the tropical rainstorm to the west-northeast this week and a more northerly path this weekend are likely to weaken next week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “And that could create a problem for the forward speed of the tropical feature.”

AccuWeather has maintained its forecast for an active hurricane season in 2024, driven by warm Atlantic waters and diminishing dry air.