The Florida Chamber of Commerce’s 2024 Midyear Economic Report presents a mixed economic outlook, highlighting ongoing growth but cautioning against challenges like labor shortages, housing affordability, and the need for economic diversification.

The Florida Chamber of Commerce’s 2024 Midyear Economic Report posits a mixed outlook on the state’s economic health, presenting both encouraging trends and potential challenges as Florida strives to become a top 10 global economy by 2030.

The report indicates that Florida’s economy continues to expand, supported by steady GDP growth and an ongoing influx of new residents. Currently, the state ranks as the 16th largest economy globally, with a GDP exceeding $1.6 trillion—placing it ahead of countries such as Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Despite this growth, the report cautions that several factors could impede Florida’s progress toward its economic ambitions.

“Florida’s fast-paced growth necessitates taking stock of economic headwinds and tailwinds on a consistent basis—keeping a pulse on changing demographics, talent supply, housing trends, developments in technology and innovation, and many other key metrics that fuel our growth trajectory,” the report states.

A key concern outlined in the document is the potential for labor shortages, particularly in sectors requiring skilled workers. The report projects a decline in the working-age population, specifically among those aged 25 to 34 and 50 to 59, which could lead to staffing challenges across the state. Moreover, more than 11 percent of Florida’s youth aged 16 to 24—approximately 267,000 individuals—are neither employed nor enrolled in school, further exacerbating the state’s forthcoming workforce issues.

“Florida’s demand for workers has exceeded the available labor supply for the past few years, and the gaps could persist if essential workforce populations like disconnected youth, those without a GED, and parents who experience childcare barriers are not given the opportunities to be successful in the labor market,” the report states. “Taking stock of these and other untapped workforce populations is a path to addressing Florida’s workforce needs.”

The report also highlights the importance of economic diversification to ensure Florida’s long-term stability. While tourism remains a central pillar of the state’s economy, the Chamber is advocating for an expansion into other sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. The Chamber aims to position Florida among the top five states for manufacturing jobs by 2030, which would require the creation of approximately 96,700 new jobs in the sector. The report suggests that meeting this target could result in the creation of over 280,000 jobs and nearly $7 billion in additional earnings.

“This stimulates consumer spending and fosters economic expansion,” reads the report. “The manufacturing industry also drives innovation, infrastructure development, and opportunities for exports, attracting revenue from global markets. These unique industry characteristics highlight manufacturing as a pivotal sector to prioritize.”

Housing affordability is presented as another significant issue in the report. Over the past four years, median single-family home prices in Florida have risen by more than 50 percent, making it increasingly difficult for many residents to afford housing. The affordability crisis is also creating challenges for businesses trying to attract and retain employees. The report warns that rising housing costs could have long-term effects on Florida’s economic growth by deterring potential new residents and workers.

“Housing prices in Florida have seen a jump of over 50 percent in four years, making it more expensive to live here in Florida—which ultimately means it is more expensive to work here,” the report notes.

The report also highlights regional disparities in housing costs across the state. For instance, the median home price in Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island is $950,000, compared to $275,000 in Sebring, leading to varied economic and political challenges across regions. In higher-cost areas, concerns are focused on affordability and housing availability, while lower-cost regions are more concerned with attracting new residents and businesses.

The technology and innovation sectors are also key areas of focus in the report. Florida has recently attracted significant tech investments, including a new manufacturing facility by Aura Aero Inc. at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and the designation of Central Florida as a National Science Foundation Regional Innovation Engine.