Florida’s citrus industry is facing yet another downturn, with the latest USDA Citrus February Forecast Report projecting a decline in production for the 2024-2025 season. The state’s all-orange production is estimated to reach 11.5 million boxes, marking a 4 percent decrease from the previous month’s forecast and a 36 percent drop compared to the season prior.

The forecast for non-Valencia oranges, which are primarily used for processing into juice, reflects the sharpest decline, with production expected to total 4.5 million boxes, down 10 percent from January’s estimate. Valencia oranges, the primary variety consumed fresh, are forecast to hold steady at 7.0 million boxes. In contrast, grapefruit production is forecasted at 1.1 million boxes, a decrease of 8 percent. Lemon production is forecast to remain unchanged at 600,000 boxes, while tangerine and mandarin production is projected to rise by 17 percent, reaching 350,000 boxes.

The forecast also details production trends across the broader U.S. citrus industry. California continues to lead in overall citrus output, particularly in non-Valencia oranges, with an estimated 39 million boxes expected for the season.

The forecast’s reliability is tied to its Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which is 6.7 percent, indicating that the actual final production figures could vary within this range. Historically, February forecasts have often been slightly below the final production numbers, with 7 instances of underestimation and 13 instances of overestimation in the past two decades.

In terms of fruit quality, the report shows that both non-Valencia and Valencia oranges are experiencing high levels of droppage — the percentage of fruit that falls from a tree before it reaches maturity or is harvested — with non-Valencia oranges seeing 56 percent fruit loss and Valencia oranges at 60 percent. Grapefruit, too, shows significant fruit loss, with red grapefruit reporting 43 percent droppage and white grapefruit at 51 percent. The forecast also indicates a reduction in fruit size compared to the previous year, with Valencia oranges showing a decrease in Brix (sugar content) to 9.31 percent, down from last year’s 10.03 percent. While juice content per box has slightly increased, the overall fruit is smaller in diameter.

This ongoing decline in Florida’s citrus production further compounds challenges for the state’s citrus industry, which has faced consecutive years of declines due to factors such as hurricanes, disease, and ongoing labor shortages. The forecast’s implications on the market suggest potential for higher orange juice prices as production continues to falter, though the growth in tangerine and mandarin production may offer some relief for growers in the short term.