Consumer confidence in Florida fell for the third straight month in September, mirroring a national decline as households grew more cautious about the economy and major purchases.
The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research reported the state’s sentiment index dropped 1.5 points to 78.7, down from a revised 80.2 in August. Nationally, the index fell 3.1 points.
Hector Sandoval, who directs the economic analysis program at UF, said the downturn was led by reduced willingness to buy big-ticket items and weaker expectations for the U.S. economy.
“This month’s decline is driven primarily by reduced spending intentions and growing concerns about the national economy,” he said. “While the steepest drop was in Floridians’ willingness to purchase big-ticket items, long-term expectations for the U.S. economy also fell, reaching their lowest level in 18 months. At that time, concerns focused on unexpectedly high inflation. Today, similar worries may be resurfacing, but they are now accompanied by signs of labor market weakness. This shift has prompted the Fed to respond with its first rate cut since December.”
Four of the five components of Florida’s index fell in September. Assessments of whether now is a good time to buy a major household item dropped 4.4 points, the sharpest decline. Views of current personal finances edged down slightly, while expectations for the U.S. economy over the next year and five years also weakened. Expectations for personal finances a year from now were unchanged.
The survey results showed splits across demographic groups. Women expressed more confidence about their current financial situations, while men, younger Floridians and higher-income households were more pessimistic about their finances over the next year. Lower-income respondents and women reported more optimism about the long-term national outlook.
The report noted broader economic developments that may have influenced sentiment, including new federal tariffs on Indian goods, pharmaceuticals, trucks and kitchen cabinets, and revised data showing weaker job growth over the past year.
Unemployment in both Florida and the U.S. ticked up only slightly, though jobless claims have been volatile.
UF researchers surveyed 809 Floridians between Aug. 1 and Sept. 25. The index is benchmarked to 1966, when a reading of 100 represented the confidence level at that time.
