- Florida’s Revenue Estimating Conference revealed that the certified school taxable value for July 1, 2024, exceeded initial projections by $8.08 billion, reaching $3.3 billion, with a revised ad valorem forecast of $3.4 billion, alongside a $78.6 billion increase from the previous estimate in March.
- Residential properties primarily drove the increase, with a 15.27 percent appreciation across all property types in 2023, but growth is expected to slow to low single digits in the coming years due to tighter monetary policy and elevated mortgage rates.
- Property appreciation is predicted to decline to 0.99 percent in 2024 and increase to 2.19 percent in 2025, aligning with the Florida Economic Estimating Conference’s forecast.
- County taxable value reached $2.9 billion, expected to rise to $3.08 billion in 2024 due to exemptions for property owners.
Florida’s Revenue Estimating Conference met this week to assess the state’s property tax roll, revealing that updated projections have exceeded expectations.
The estimates of the certified school taxable value as of July 1, 2024, surpassed initial projections by $8.08 billion, or 2.5 percent, reaching $3.3 billion. Buoyed by the growth, the conference has revised its ad valorem forecast for 2024 to an even higher value of $3.4 billion.
This updated figure represents an increase of $78.6 billion compared to the previous estimate made in March. With the value of one mill projected to be $3,335.12 million at 96 percent, the enhanced property tax roll could potentially translate into increased resources for local school districts.
“Predominantly, that increase is driven by residential property,” said Lizette Kelly of the Florida Department of Revenue “We’re also seeing increases in commercial property – about 13 percent over 2022, and industrial about another 20 percent. Large multi-family [properties], we’re seeing increases of about 17 percent in adjusted value.”
Traditionally, Florida’s property assessments have been heavily influenced by the dynamics of the housing market. While 2023 saw a 15.27 percent appreciation across all property types, the growth rate is expected to slow to the low single digits in the coming years. This change is primarily due to the tightening of monetary policy and elevated mortgage rates, which have tempered price increases and introduced a possibility of price decreases.
As a result, the conference predicts that appreciation will decline to 0.99 percent in 2024, followed by a modest increase to 2.19 percent in 2025, aligning with the Florida Economic Estimating Conference’s forecast.
The distinction between school taxable value and county taxable value was also highlighted by state economists, with the latter being lower due to various exemptions available to property owners. As of January 1, 2024, the county taxable value reached $2.9 billion. However, the revised projection for 2024 is a higher $3.08 billion, signifying a year-over-year increase of $1.6 billion from previously agreed-upon forecasts.