Florida’s revenue collections exceed projections in June, bolstering surpluses in tax generation

by | Aug 10, 2023

  • General revenue collections for June exceeded initial projections by 10.2%, totaling $4.66 billion, driven by strong sales tax performance and inflation-induced consumer spending.
  • Fiscal Year 2022-23 general revenue collections reached $47.33 billion, exceeding estimates by 2.3 percent.
  • Sales tax, investments, corporate income tax, and licenses contributed to the surplus, while insurance, corporate filing fees, and certain taxes fell short of expectations.

General revenue collections for the month of June surpassed initial projections by a significant margin. According to the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR), total collections for the month amounted to $4.66 billion, representing a 10.2 percent increase over the adopted forecast assumptions made in March.

For the Fiscal Year 2022-23, General Revenue collections amounted to $47.33 billion, a 2.3 percent overestimate for the year. A primary component of the increased revenue was the performance of sales tax, which itself exceeded expectations by $293.4 million, an 11.1% percent rise above the estimate for the month.

Per the conference, inflation played a role in boosting Sales Tax collections, noting that the Consumer Price Index for all items increased by 3.0 percent in the 12 months leading up to June. The inflationary pressure consequentially led to higher prices, resulting in increased sales tax revenue as consumers made purchases at elevated rates.

Within the sales tax data exists a wide breadth of contributors to the revenue surplus with tourism, automobiles, and business all surpassing their respective yearly estimates. The report also points to other revenue sources that outperformed expectations such as earnings on investments, corporate income tax, and Licenses and Fees, which all contributed to revenue collections. Despite exceeding the initial economic forecast, not all revenue sources met their projections. Insurance taxes, corporate filing fees, beverage taxes, tobacco taxes, and severance taxes fell short of expectations for both the month and the fiscal year.

The report comes just days after the EDR convened to determine that the state’s property tax roll projections have exceeded expectations.

The estimates of the certified school taxable value as of July 1, 2024 surpassed initial projections by $8.08 billion, or 2.5 percent, reaching $3.3 billion. Buoyed by the growth, the conference has revised its ad valorem forecast for 2024 to an even higher value of $3.4 billion.

This updated figure represents an increase of $78.6 billion compared to the previous estimate made in March. With the value of one mill projected to be $3,335.12 million at 96 percent, the enhanced property tax roll could potentially translate into increased resources for local school districts.

“Predominantly, that increase is driven by residential property,” said Lizette Kelly of the Florida Department of Revenue “We’re also seeing increases in commercial property – about 13 percent over 2022, and industrial about another 20 percent. Large multi-family [properties], we’re seeing increases of about 17 percent in adjusted value.”

Traditionally, Florida’s property assessments have been heavily influenced by the dynamics of the housing market. While 2023 saw a 15.27 percent appreciation across all property types, the growth rate is expected to slow to the low single digits in the coming years. This change is primarily due to the tightening of monetary policy and elevated mortgage rates, which have tempered price increases and introduced a possibility of price decreases.


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