FSU poll: DeSantis, Rubio cruising to re-election

by | Nov 4, 2022

 

  • A poll conducted by YouGov and sponsored by the Florida State University Institute of Politics shows Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio headed toward re-election 
  • In the poll, DeSantis holds a 10-point lead over challenger Charlie Crist, while Rubio leads Democrat Val Demings by 7 percentage points 
  • Much of DeSantis’ momentum is carried by his favorability among Hispanic voters 
  • Early voting statistics indicate a ‘red wave’ voting cycle for Republicans

A newly published poll of Florida voters sponsored by the Institute of Politics at Florida State University (IOP) and conducted by YouGov shows that Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republican Sen. Marco Rubio appear poised to secure re-election.

If the election were held today, 53 percent of respondents stated that they would vote for DeSantis over challenger Charlie Crist, who received 43 percent support.

In the U.S. Senate election, Rubio leads Congresswoman Val Demings by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent.

“Florida is an important bellwether state,” said Dr. Hans Hassel, Institute of Politics at FSU Director. “The results from the IOP poll show favorable winds for Republican candidates.”

Much of DeSantis’ momentum is carried by his favorability rating among Hispanic voters. 48 percent of voters within the demographic responded to the survey in support of the incumbent governor, compared to 46 percent claiming dissatisfaction.

In a sign of trouble for Democrats, the number of registered Republicans that early voted in Miami-Dade County surpassed that of Democrats this week. The numbers hint at a voting trend that could result in a ‘red wave’ election cycle, given that early voting is something typically done by far more Democrat voters than Republicans.

Miami-Dade County, a traditional lock for Democrats, could flip red in a gubernatorial race for the first time since 2002 when Jeb Bush won a second term in office.

According to the poll, Hispanic voters are evenly divided between Senate candidates, with Demings holding a one-point advantage. Rubio holds a 10-point advantage over Demings among Independents, while 11 percent of Independents still remain undecided.

A second Senate poll released this week by Civiqs also shows Rubio leading Demings by 7 points — by a count of 52 percent to 45 percent — reflecting a one-percent increase from two recent polls conducted on Oct. 31st by Insider Advantage and Victory Insights, which showed Rubio with a 6 and 4-point lead, respectively.

Women voters show a slight preference for Demings, who holds a one-point advantage over Rubio among the demographic. Poll findings further found that like Charlie Crist, Demings relies heavily on support from college-educated and younger voters.

The survey, held between Oct. 20th and Oct. 31st, interviewed 1,310 adult registered voters from Florida who were then matched down to a sample of 1,117 to produce the final dataset.

The respondents were matched to a Florida registered voter sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 Congressional Election Study (CES) surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

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