A new poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris making slight gains against former President Donald Trump in Florida, narrowing the gap to 5 percentage points, with her support particularly strong among independent voters and women, despite the state’s Republican advantage.
A new poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is making marginal gains against former President Donald Trump in Florida, despite the state’s Republican lean.
The survey, conducted from August 7 to August 11 by USA TODAY, Suffolk University, and WSVN-TV, polled 500 likely voters. The results, published on Tuesday, show Trump leading Harris by 5 percentage points (47 percent to 42 percent), with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 5 percent of voter support. Harris’ deficit falls just outside the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error. Harris’ strongest support comes from women (50 percent) and Democrats (88 percent), though her support is significantly lower among men (33 percent) and Republicans (3 percent).
The former President, meanwhile, carries a strong backing from men (57 percent) and Republicans (90 percent). Trump’s first term approval is split, with 55 percent approving (35 percent strongly approve) and 42 percent disapproving.
Harris also appears to have gained favorability among Florida voters, particularly in comparison to President Joe Biden. The poll notes that 44 percent of voters view Harris favorably, a figure slightly higher than Biden’s 39 percent, though 50.2 percent still view her unfavorably. Moreover, both Trump and Harris have succeeded in energizing their respective bases, with 89 percent of each candidate’s supporters expressing eagerness to vote.
“In the 2020 presidential race Trump won Florida by three points, but Harris is polling more strongly than expected in a state that has nearly a million fewer active Democratic voters than it did then,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
Perhaps most importantly, independent voters appear to be favoring Harris over Trump by a margin of 41 percent to 34 percent. This lead among the vote bloc is even more pronounced among independent women, where Harris leads Trump by a wide margin of 48 percent to 19 percent, with Kennedy, Jr. capturing 17 percent of the demographic.
Paleologos noted that while Trump benefits from a substantial Republican registration advantage — which reached 1 million on Sunday — Harris’ ability to attract independent voters, particularly women, could make Florida a more competitive battleground than anticipated. The presence an abortion rights question on the statewide ballot (Amendment 4) is expected to drive higher turnout among women, which could further influence the race.
“This poll seems to indicate that the overwhelming Republican Party registration advantage is partially offset by Kamala Harris winning independents, especially independent women,” Paleologos said. “Especially given that there will be an abortion rights question (Amendment 4) on the statewide ballot, which could drive up turnout among women.”
Among respondents who didn’t choose a major party candidate, Harris is the second choice for 33 percent, while Trump is the second choice for 21 percent.