TALLAHASSEE — Hurricane Helene could cause $3 billion to $6 billion in private insurance losses and as much as $1 billion in losses in federal flood-insurance and crop-insurance programs, according to an analysis Wednesday by the global reinsurance broker Gallagher Re.

The analysis came as Helene is expected Thursday night to slam into North Florida as a major hurricane, after whipping up heavy storm surge in coastal communities as it races through the Gulf of Mexico.

“Landfall in the Big Bend or Panhandle region of Florida as a major hurricane (Category 3, 4, or 5) has historically translated to insured losses in the low single-digit billions,” the analysis said. “But Helene is not a typical storm. Given Helene’s very large wind radius, this would still bring hurricane-force wind gusts and high storm surge to coastal areas in the heavily populated Tampa Bay area, tropical storm force winds across most of the Florida peninsula, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee and southern Appalachia. This initially suggests that Helene’s private insurance market losses should be expected to land in the range of ($3 billion to $6 billion). This is subject to change. Additional losses attributed to the National Flood Insurance Program and the USDA’s (U.S. Department of Agriculture’s) crop insurance program may approach ($1 billion).”

The analysis also said that if the storm “unexpectedly” shifts east closer to Tampa, insurance costs could top $10 billion.

As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said a hurricane warning was in effect from the Anclote River in the Pasco County area to Mexico Beach in Bay County. Storm surge could be as much as 12 to 18 feet from Carrabelle in Franklin County to Chassahowitzka in Citrus County, the hurricane center said.

The Gallagher Re analysis said Helene’s “very wide wind swath will produce hurricane or tropical storm-force gusts across much of the state of Florida.”

“Tallahassee … and northern parts of the state have excessive foliage that could drive considerable tree-related impacts falling on physical structures,” the analysis said. “In the main peninsula, tropical storm-force wind gusts could lead to more minor levels of damage to properties resulting from downed trees or affected attached pool screens that aggregates to a higher loss.”

Property-insurance policies do not cover flood damage, with property owners generally needing to buy coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program.

“While the wind impacts will be a significant damage driver, there will also be considerable coastal storm surge inundation from the Tampa Bay area northward into the Big Bend.” the Gallagher Re analysis said. “This could result in major losses to the NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program), with the highest active policy take-up rates found in Pinellas, Hillsborough and Pasco counties.”

While the state’s Citizens Property Insurance Corp. is the largest property insurer in Florida, it might avoid major losses if Helene remains on the projected track.

“The bulk of active Citizens’ policies are in the Florida peninsula, especially in the Tampa, Orlando and Miami metro areas,” the analysis said. “A major hurricane landfall in the Big Bend region of the state would mean a much-reduced impact on Citizens policies, but any eastward shift closer to Tampa is expected to enhance the volume of filed claims to the program.”

As an illustration, Citizens President and CEO Tim Cerio said Wednesday that Citizens had received 2,792 claims from Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 storm that made landfall last month in the Big Bend’s Taylor County. He said about 70 percent of the claims were from the Tampa-Sarasota region because of damage sustained as Debby moved up the Gulf of Mexico.

Also, Cerio said many of the claims involved flood damage — which Citizens doesn’t cover. He said Citizens had paid out $8.3 million to policyholders.

“Obviously for those impacted, those individuals impacted and families impacted, it was terrible,” Cerio told the Citizens Board of Governors. “As an organization, for us, it was not a horrible event as far as what we’re looking at as far as claims.”

Cerio also said Citizens was focused on preparing for Helene.

“The entire organization is prioritizing storm response,” he said.