Internal polling provided by the office of gubernatorial candidate Nikki Fried shows a 4-point deficit to party challenger Charlie Crist. The poll suggests Fried is faring better than some statewide pollsters may report, even providing a metric that indicates Fried leads Crist by 17 points when respondents are given a ‘positive bio read’ before selecting a candidate.
The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, was conducted through a multi-channel telephone and text-to-web survey of 600 likely Democratic voters in Florida. The survey was additionally conducted with a deliberate oversampling of 200 African-American voters.
“A new poll of likely 2022 Democratic primary voters in Florida shows a dead heat in the race for Governor as Nikki Fried is well-positioned to take advantage of an electorate that is ready to replace Ron DeSantis,” the poll report states. “Nikki Fried is closer to former Republican Governor Charlie Crist than previous public polls showed, with a significant portion of voters undecided even as Crist is very well-known. Moreover, a simulated campaign in the poll shows a clear path to victory for Fried if she has the resources to communicate the message.”
Findings reflect the name-brand status of Charlie Crist’s campaign, conveying that Crist holds a 26-point familiarity advantage over Fried.
What Fried’s media team suggests through this poll is that voters respond favorably to Fried’s campaign and political positioning. Simulating a faux-media campaign, Fried jumps out to a 17-point lead.
“Following the initial ballot, voters heard profiles of equal length about both Fried and Crist (with Crist’s based on information from his website),” continued the polling report. “Once providing biographies on both candidates, voters significantly shift toward Fried. She leads Crist by 17-points, consolidating strong leads among key primary targets, like younger voters, women, Black voters, and current Crist voters.”
Fried’s internal findings largely contradict data reported by established polling agencies throughout the state. A University of North Florida Public Research poll bodes best for Fried outside of her internal poll, placing the Agricultural Commissioner 8-points behind Crist. St. Pete Polls, however, puts Fried a whopping 33 points behind Crist.
Fried’s internal poll marks the first poll she holds a lead in since February.
The Capitolist requested a copy of the bio used in Fried’s polling and awaits a response. Below are excerpts of the bios used on the websites of Fried, and Crist, respectively:
“Nikki ran for office for the first time in 2018 after serving as a public defender, child welfare champion, and marijuana legalization advocate. Since taking office, she’s been a fresh voice in Tallahassee, legalizing hemp, standing up for LGBTQ+ equality, fighting for clean water, and more.
Now, she’s running for Governor to build a stronger, fairer Florida.
Even with a Republican Governor and Republican-controlled Legislature, Nikki has delivered big wins for Floridians. She appointed the department’s first-ever cannabis director and first ever LGBTQ advocate, legalized hemp for farmers, fought for clean water, and helped keep guns off our streets with her management of the country’s largest concealed weapons permitting program.”
“Charlie has dedicated his life to public service. He’s been tested by the toughest challenges. When Florida was hit with the Great Recession, Charlie led — bringing Floridians together to save the jobs of 20,000 teachers while cutting taxes for seniors. When the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe struck, Charlie led — marshaling resources and expertise to protect the environment and holding BP accountable after the devastating oil spill.
Charlie has dedicated his life to fighting for opportunity and fairness for every Floridian. Over his career in public service, he has served as State Senator, Commission of Education, Attorney General, Governor, and Congressman.
As Florida’s 44th Governor from 2007 to 2011, Charlie Crist led Florida through the Great Recession and the Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill, always keeping his word to fight for the people. He helped lower the cost of doing business and living in Florida, increase transparency in government, strengthen Florida’s economy and ensure the safety and world-class education of Florida’s children.”