Latest polls show both Nelson and Gillum leading in their respective races

by | Nov 5, 2018

Democrats Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum each hold a 7-point advantage in their respective races for U.S. Senate and governor. Those are the findings of the latest poll conducted by Quinnipiac University.

It reflects similar findings in another poll released Monday. A survey released by NBC News/Marist shows both Democrats up by identical 5-point margins over their opponents, 50 percent to 45 percent.

In the U.S. Senate contest, the Quinnipiac poll of likely voters shows on the eve of election day, incumbent Democratic Sen. Nelson leads Republican Gov. Rick Scott 51 percent to 44 percent.  Quinnipiac’s last survey released on Oct. 22 showed Nelson holding a 6-point advantage over Scott.

In the race for governor, Tallahassee Mayor Gillum holds a 50 percent to 43 percent lead over his Republican opponent, former Congressman Ron DeSantis. That’s up from a 6-point lead in the October poll.

“Democrats Sen. Bill Nelson and Mayor Andrew Gillum have identical seven-point leads entering the final hours before Election Day in the races to be the next governor and U.S. senator from Florida,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“Sen. Nelson has a 13-point edge among independent voters. Candidates with double- digit leads among independents rarely lose,” Brown added.

In addition to leading with independent voters, Nelson holds a 12-point lead among women. He holds even bigger leads among black and Hispanic voters, 81-points and 18-points, respectively.

The poll numbers for Gillum are similar to those of Nelson.

“There is little difference in the two race,” Brown said. “Both leaders ran up double-digit leads among women; whites went heavily for the GOP candidates while non-whites went even more so for the Democrats.”

Gillum also holds a 13-point lead among independents. He also leads DeSantis by 6-points among women, 87-points among blacks, and 18 points among Hispanics.

Both Gillum and DeSantis hold identical 89-point leads within their respective parties.

While 6 percent of Florida likely voters remain undecided in this race, only 1 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow.

“Mayor Andrew Gillum and his challenger, former Congressman Ron DeSantis, are running exactly the same, 93 – 4 percent among self-identified members of each of their respective parties. But Gillum’s 13-point margin among independents is the difference in the outcome,” Brown said.

The NBC/Marist poll also shows Nelson and Gillum with significant leads among independents. The survey shows Gillum holding a 22-point advantage, while Nelson has a 17-point lead.

The NBC News/Marist poll was conducted from October 30 – November 2. It interviewed 1,038 Florida adults live by either landline or cellphone. For the 595 likely voters, the margin of error was 5 percent.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted from October 29 – November 4. It surveyed 1,142 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect.



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