Mortgage report shows concerning data for some of Florida’s metro areas

by | Jul 7, 2021

Inside historic home price growth rates in Florida and across the nation are other concerning statistics for some of Florida’s largest metropolitan areas.

According to the most recent Mortgage Monitor Report released today by the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc., there are record number of people trying to buy homes, few homes for sale and those who own homes, in some locations, increasingly, aren’t paying their mortgages.

“Home prices (nationally) grew at 14.8 percent on an annual basis in April,” said Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske. “That’s the highest annual home price growth rate we’ve ever seen – and Black Knight’s been tracking the metric for almost 30 years now. Single-family homes saw the greatest gains, with prices up 15.6 percent from last April, also an all-time high, while condo prices are up 10 percent. Driving this growth are two key elements: historically low interest rates and – more acutely – the lack of available for-sale inventory. The total number of active listings was down 60 percent from the 2017 to 2019 average for April. It’s not getting any better, either. Data from our Collateral Analytics group showed there was two months’ worth of single-family inventory nationwide in March, the lowest share on record and trending downward. In fact, there were 26 percent fewer newly listed properties in April as compared to pre-pandemic seasonal levels.

“Of course, such aggressive home price growth has had an impact on affordability levels, even with interest rates back under three percent and within roughly a quarter point of historic lows. Entering June, the share of the median income needed to make the monthly payments on the median-priced home had risen to 20.5 percentage. While still more affordable than the 25-year average of 23.6 percent, housing has surpassed its five-year average of 20.1 percent even with interest rates back below three percent. In recent years, 20.5 percent has roughly been the tipping point at which appreciation begins to decelerate, but given the severity of inventory shortages, home prices have – at least for now – continued to sharply accelerate even in the face of tightening affordability.”

In Florida, Tampa and Jacksonville have the highest home price growth rates at 17.3 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

At the same time, those who are non-current on their mortgage loans is also growing.

According to the report, all 50 states – as well as all 100 largest markets in the US – continue to see elevated levels of serious delinquencies due to the pandemic, with impacts varying across the country. Florida ties for fourth with Texas at three percent with Hawaii leading the way at 4.1 percent. Nevada is second and Louisiana is third.

Miami had the largest change in serious delinquency rates, statewide and is second in the country. In February of 2020, Miami’s delinquency rate was 1.6 percent. In April 2021, delinquency increased by four percent to 5.5 percent. Orlando came in fourth with a 4.8 percent delinquency rate, up 3.4 percent over the previous year.

Both Miami and Orlando are examples of how metro areas that heavily rely on tourism have been impacted the most by mortgage delinquencies due to lost jobs during the pandemic.

The good news is that in Florida, a quick rebound is expected as the economy re-opened quickly and tourism is returning to normal.



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