A poll released by Quinnipiac University Tuesday shows Democrat Andrew Gillum holding a narrow 3-point lead over his Republican opponent, Ron DeSantis. But when you consider the poll’s margin of error, the race is too close to call.
The poll released Tuesday shows Putnam receiving the support of 50 percent of the voters surveyed, while DeSantis received 47 percent. It also shows most of those voters appear to be fairly certain as to how they’ll vote just over two months before the election.
“Now, 97 of voters say they will vote for one of the two men, a highly unusual situation this far from the actual voting. Just as unusual, more than 90 percent of Gillum and DeSantis voters say they will not change their minds and are dead set in supporting the candidate they now favor,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
The poll reflects wide gaps among racial and gender groups. DeSantis holds a 52 – 45 percent among men, while Gillum holds a 55 – 42 percent lead among women. White voters favor DeSantis 52 – 45 percent, while black voters support Gillum by an overwhelming 92 – 6 percent margin. Among Hispanics, DeSantis holds a lead of 56 – 43 percent.
Republicans support DeSantis by a 92 – 6 percent margin, while Democrats favor Gillum 93 – 3 percent. Among the critical group of independent voters, Gillum holds a 55 – 42 percent lead.
“Mayor Andrew Gillum came out of his upset victory in the Florida Democratic primary with a head of steam,” said Brown. “That momentum shows itself as Gillum hits 50 percent in a neck-and-neck match-up with Republican U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis for the four-year lease on the governor’s mansion.”
Although DeSantis was propelled into the GOP’s nomination by President Donald Trump’s endorsement in June, the poll suggests there will be little “Trump effect” in the governor’s race in November. Of those surveyed, 22 percent said their vote will be more of a show of support for Trump, while 24 percent said their vote would be in opposition to the president. But 51 percent say Trump is not a key issue in the contest.
The poll shows people like DeSantis as a person 40 – 33 percent. They are divided on whether they like his stand on issues. Gillum was liked as a person 49 – 13 percent, while his position on the issues was liked by 46 – 42 percent.
Gillum gets a 46 – 33 percent favorability rating, while DeSantis gets a split 45 – 43 percent favorability rating.
The Quinnipiac University survey indicates the economy is the biggest in the election with 23 percent, followed by immigration and health care with 14 percent, 13 percent say gun policy, 12 percent for the environment and 10 percent for education.
Quinnipiac University surveyed 785 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.