New poll shows Nelson holding a narrow 1 point lead in race for U.S. Senate

by | Oct 4, 2018

Democrat Bill Nelson holds a slim 1-point lead over his Republican opponent, Gov. Rick Scott in the latest Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy survey involving the race for the U.S. Senate.. Nelson received the support of 47 percent of the voters polled while Scott received 46 percent. The results are well within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

The poll does indicate a shift toward Nelson since the previous Mason-Dixon poll taken in July which showed Scott with a 3-point lead over Nelson.

The survey was conducted Sept. 24-27 and involved 815 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the Nov. 6 general election.

The Mason-Dixon poll shows Nelson leading among women, black voters, young and independents. Meanshile, Scott is ahead with men, white voters and older voters.

The poll also indicates Nelson doing better with Hispanic voters.

“Nelson has widened his lead among Hispanics by over 10 points (55 percent to 37 percent),” said Mason-Dixon’s Brad Coker. “He led by only 44 percent to 39 percent in July. He has also pulled ahead among voters with no party affiliation, 46 percent to 43 percent. He previously trailed by 47 percent to 43 percent.”

The poll shows the unfavorable ratings of each candidate increased in the most recent survey.

Nelson’s favorable/unfavorable ratings are at 38-37 percent, while Scott is at 42-42 percent. That’s an increase in Scott’s unfavorable rating by 9 points, from 33 percent, since the last Mason-Dixon poll in July. Nelson’s unfavorable rating also has increased, but not by as much. The poll shows Nelson’s rating jump from 31 percent in July to 37 percent this month.

The Mason-Dixon survey indicates Nelson has a large lead in heavily-Democratic South Florida, while Scott has a strong lead in more conservative North Florida.

In Southwest Florida, Scott’s home turf, his advantage has slipped from 26 points to 15 points since July. The poll suggests that “(Red tide & green algae?”) Coker asked.



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