- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center revised its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, now predicting an above-normal level of activity.
- This change is the third upward adjustment in storm likelihood and is based on the significant presence of record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
- The likelihood of an above-normal season has been increased to 60 percent, marking a substantial rise from the initial 30 percent prediction in May. Conversely, the probability of a near-normal season has been reduced to 25%, while the chance of a below-normal season now stands at 15%.
- The updated outlook for the entire hurricane season, spanning until November 30 and encompassing already-formed storm systems, foresees the potential for 14-21 named storms.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center updated its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, now predicting an above-normal level of activity. The update is the third increase in storm likelihood and is predicated on the presence of record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
The likelihood of an above-normal season has been increased to 60 percent, up from the previous 30 percent prediction in May. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a near-normal season has decreased to 25 percent, while the chance of a below-normal season is now 15 percent.
The updated outlook for the entire hurricane season, ending on November 30 and including already formed storm cells, now anticipates 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Among these, 2-5 may become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater), with a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity.”
Colorado State University, one of the leading tropical meteorology groups, also adjusted its 2023 hurricane season forecast last month, estimating above-average activity in the Atlantic basin.
Similarly to the NOAA, the university attributed the adjustment to the presence of record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic regions. However, researchers noted that there is more uncertainty than usual due to conflicting signals between the warm Atlantic waters and an expected robust El Niño, which typically increases wind shear and can disrupt storm formation.
The university now predicts a total of 18 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, also estimating that the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States is above the long-term average.
When Hurricane Season commenced in June, Florida officials urged residents to prepare for the worst, cautioning residents not to underestimate the potential damage of an “average” season, harkening back to the damage brought upon by Hurricane Ian in 2022.
“Last year, we saw one of the most devastating storms in the history of the state with Hurricane Ian. Ian showed how truly unpredictable these storms can be, and how important it is that you always have a disaster plan,” said Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and State Fire Marshal Jimmy Patronis.
Hurricane Ian caused billions of dollars in damage and brought life-threatening storm surges and flooding to Southwest Florida barrier islands. The National Flood Insurance Program has since paid nearly $4 billion to policyholders for damage from Ian, not including those without flood insurance.
“When we put those storm surge watches and warnings up, that means we feel there is going to be enough inundation to pose a threat to life,” Mark Wool, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, explained.
The 2022 hurricane season featured 14 named storms, including hurricanes Ian and Nicole, the latter of which grew from a weak tropical storm to a 150 mph sustained large-scale hurricane in less than 48 hours. The 2022 season yielded more than $120 billion in damage and nearly 200 deaths.
The pair of forecasts come in poor timing for Florida’s insurance market, which is still reeling after the devastating economic and infrastructure toll brought upon by hurricanes Ian and Nicole. The National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) identified nearly half a million claims related to Hurricane Ian in the months after its landfall, with 471,581 homeowner claims, 272,465 business claims 272,465, and 151,892 automobile claims.
Estimates last year pegged Ian as the most significant natural disaster for the insurance sector in decades, with industry losses from the storm reaching as high as $75 billion.
I’m sure they are working diligently with their cloud seeding to raise temps and bring more catastrophic storms.