Poll: Biden’s lead over Trump shrinks in Florida

by | Oct 20, 2020

President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are neck and neck in the Sunshine State. according to a University of North Florida poll released Tuesday.

The new polls, conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at UNF, shows the former Vice President’s commanding lead over the President in Florida has all but disappeared. The survey found that Trump, who has been trailing Biden in several polls conducted in the state, trails Biden by only one percentage point with just two weeks remaining until the General Election.

According to the poll, 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Biden, while 47 percent of those surveyed said they would pull the lever for Trump. Another 3 percent of voters say they are undecided, while 1 percent are voting third party.

While some polls have shown Biden with a big lead in Florida and other key states, we made an effort to capture hard-to-reach voters and our results suggest that it might be a long night on November 3rd,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and associate professor of political science. “This is Florida, and elections are never easy here, I expect this race to come down to the wire.

Today’s poll erases a 6 point lead once held by Biden.

Among those polled, voters 65 and over favored Trump over Biden, with the President holding a 10 point lead in that demographic. Meanwhile, Biden is up seven points among Hispanic voters.

Despite the respective leads in each demographic, both candidates lag behind exit polls from 2016, with Trump posting a 17 point margin of victory among Florida Seniors last cycle. Clinton won the Hispanic vote by 27 points in the last election.

The UNF poll also found that Trump’s approval rating remained relatively split, with 47 percent of likely voters approving the job he is doing, while 49 percent said they disapprove. Very few people find themselves in the middle with Trump as 82 percent of the respondents have strong approval or disapproval.

Regarding the voting method, 43 percent said they would vote by mail, with 29 percent planning to vote early in person. Another 26 percent said they would vote on election day. Extensive mail in balloting has led to 25 percent of respondents indicating they had already cast their vote by mail.

“It is extremely important to remember that with the increased use of mail-in ballots across the country and some competitive states in the Midwest not allowed to start counting their mail ballots until Election Day, we might not know the winner of the election for a few days – and that is just fine,” said Binder. “It does not mean there is anything improper occurring that would threaten the integrity of the electoral process.”

UNF polled 863 likely voters from Oct. 12-16. The survey has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error.

To view the poll, click HERE.

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