Quinnipiac poll shows Gillum still leading, but the race for governor is tightening

by | Oct 23, 2018

With election day two weeks away, the latest poll by Quinnipiac University in the Florida governor’s race shows Democrat Andrew Gillum still leading, but his lead over Republican Ron DeSantis has dropped a few points from the previous poll taken last month.

The Quinnipiac survey shows Gillum with a 6-point lead. That’s a drop of 3 percent from September’s poll. Gillum leads with 52 percent of likely voters compared to 46 percent for DeSantis.

The poll, which was largely taken  prior to Sunday night’s debate on CNN, shows wide racial, gender and partisan gaps.

DeSantis leads among white voters by a 54 – 44 percent margin. Gillum enjoys a 99 – 1 percent lead with black voters and a 59 – 36 percent lead among Hispanics.

When it comes to gender, Gillum holds a 59 – 28 percent lead among women while DeSantis leads among men 54 – 44 percent.

Gillum holds a 96 – 4 percent among Democrats and 57 – 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans back DeSantis 89 – 8 percent.

“Looking inside the numbers of the governor’s race between Mayor Andrew Gillum and former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, we see shining examples of the problems Republicans face this year, not just in Florida, but around the country,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“The GOP has faced strong opposition from women and other anti-Trump voters. These defections have hurt GOP candidates around the country and made it difficult to attract the numbers of independent voters that are often major players in successful campaigns.”

That has resulted in an 18-point lead by Gillum among independents.

“Even more problematic for the GOP and telling about Mayor Gillum’s candidacy, is that a liberal Democrat is on the plus side of a 50 – 47 percent split among white women,” Brown added.

The Quinnipiac survey shows just 2 percent of the voters surveyed remain undecided. Just 4 percent who chose a candidate said they could change their mind by the election.

When it comes to favorability ratings, voters surveyed gave Gillum 50 – 38 percent rating, a drop of 12 percent from a month ago. DeSantis received a 43 – 43 percent split, a 5 percent improvement from September’s survey.

The poll was conducted from October 17 – 21. It surveyed 1,161 Florida likely voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey used random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones



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