With Congressman Byron Donalds running for Governor, the race to succeed him in Florida’s 19th Congressional District is starting to take shape. Notably missing from the field of declared candidates are the well-recognized names of known Florida politicos.

The GOP primary is the real contest in the district, which includes Lee and parts of Collier and Hendry counties in Southwest Florida. Donalds won re-election in 2024 by more than 30 points. The seat is expected to stay firmly in Republican hands, which is why insiders are closely watching the GOP field as it begins to coalesce.

Five Republicans have already filed candidacy paperwork at the Federal Elections Commission: Dylan Modarelli, Mike Pedersen, Jim Schwartzel, John Fratto and Jim Oberweis.  None are particularly well-known in the region, and bigger names still lurk.

Over the years, the legislative delegation from Southwest Florida has produced influential leaders including State University System Chancellor Ray Rodriguez, former Senate Rules Chair and Majority Leader Lizbeth Benacquisto, and former House Majority Leader Dane Eagle.

Eagle and Benacquisto have both run to represent the Southwest Florida congressional district in past election cycles.  Both came up short, and neither are expected to mount another campaign to serve in the US House.

Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno floated a trial balloon in late March but, according to local political insiders, hasn’t done much to test the waters further. Marceno’s interest in pursuing higher office raised eyebrows after multiple news outlets reported that the Sheriff is a person of interest in a federal investigation. Gulf Coast News reported in March that “A grand jury has been investigating the sheriff for months on allegations of money laundering.”

State Senator Jonathan Martin is also rumored to be considering a run for Donalds’ seat.  Since taking office in 2022, Martin has established himself as thoughtful, conservative leader, and has built important relationships with influential donors in the trial bar and in President Donald Trump’s orbit. Sources close to Martin suggest that he is waiting to formally test the waters until the state budget is signed into law.

The District 19 Congressional seat was last open in 2020 after Congressman Francis Rooney announced he would not seek a third term in office. The race to replace Rooney featured a 9-way Republican primary that included over $9 million in political expenditures, according to OpenSecrets.org.