Florida’s economy is expected to keep expanding through the next decade, but at a slower pace than in the years immediately following the pandemic, according to a new quarterly forecast released by Florida TaxWatch.
The report, prepared with data from the Regional Economic Consulting Group, projects that Florida will return to more typical pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years after a period of unusually strong expansion. Florida TaxWatch said the state’s economy reached $1.85 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 and entered the year with strong momentum, but the latest forecast points to moderation rather than a continuation of the recent surge.
One of the clearest signs of that shift is migration. Florida’s population is projected to rise from about 23.4 million in 2025 to about 26 million by 2035, but the pace of net in-migration is expected to slow. The report forecasts daily net migration declining from 922 people in 2025 to 689 by 2035, even as the state continues to add residents overall.
The report ties that slower inflow in part to rising costs. It says more Floridians are leaving because of housing prices, property taxes, property and auto insurance costs, and concerns about more frequent and severe weather events. Still, the forecast says Florida is likely to remain one of the nation’s fastest-growing states.
“Fueled by a strong global presence in tourism, trade, and real estate development, Florida’s economy has grown to $1.85 trillion in Q3 of 2025. Overall, Florida’s economy is now set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years, after experiencing high economic growth in the past three years,” Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Jeff Kottkamp said. “This forecast continues to show the growth of Florida, but at a much slower rate than the previous forecasts. This can be, in part, due to economic uncertainty in the nation, as well as a lower level of consumer confidence in the economy. The slight improvements in the short-term outlook of key indicators compared to the Q3 forecast show reasons for optimism when considering Florida’s economy.
The labor market is also projected to cool somewhat before stabilizing. Florida TaxWatch forecasts employment increasing from 10.1 million in 2025 to 11.5 million in 2035. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.9% in 2025 to 4.4% through 2027 before gradually easing to 4.0% by 2035.
Economic output is projected to follow a similar pattern. Florida’s real GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.7% in 2026, then slow to about 1.9% by 2035. Income growth is forecast to peak at 6.26% in 2027 before easing to around 5.54% by the end of the forecast period.
Tourism, one of Florida’s main economic drivers, is expected to remain a source of strength. The report notes that Florida drew a record 142.9 million visitors in 2024, who spent $134.9 billion. Visitor growth is projected to slow to 0.5% in the near term, then strengthen through 2027 and level off at roughly 3.5% annually in later years.
Compared with the national outlook, Florida TaxWatch said the state’s real GDP growth is expected to outpace the U.S. through 2030, while unemployment is projected to remain near or below the national average. Overall, the report describes a Florida economy that is still growing, but doing so under more restrained conditions than in recent years.
