As Florida heads into the final stretch of early voting before Election Day on November 5, Republicans have built a substantial lead in ballots cast, continuing a trend that has seen the GOP solidify its advantage across the Sunshine State. According to the latest county-by-county election data, Republicans have nearly 11 point advantage over Democrats in early votes, highlighting a shift that reflects broader changes in voter registration and political engagement across the state.

The data indicates that, as of Sunday evening, nearly 4.6 million ballots have been cast in Florida. Of those, approximately 2.07 million were cast by registered Republicans, compared to 1.57 million by Democrats, and about 957,000 by voters registered with other parties or as independents. The numbers reveal a significant lead for Republicans, who have secured about 45% of the total ballots cast, while Democrats have managed 34%. The remaining 21% of votes came from other affiliations.

This advantage is particularly notable given Florida’s history of Republican strength on Election Day. Traditionally, Republicans are known to outperform Democrats in turnout on the final day of voting, suggesting that this early lead could widen further when all votes are counted. The GOP’s lead in early voting can be attributed to several factors, including increased voter registration, especially among Hispanic communities, and a robust campaign presence statewide.

Making matters worse for Democrats: the continuing shift of Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban Americans, towards the Republican Party. According to a recent poll by the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, 68 percent of Cuban American voters in Florida say they plan to vote for Donald Trump, compared to just 35% in 2016. This trend has been a significant factor in helping Republicans maintain their lead in key areas, including Miami-Dade County, where early Republican turnout is notably strong.

The shift began to take shape in the 2022 midterms, where Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election by a historic 16-point margin, flipping several counties that had traditionally leaned Democratic. Miami-Dade, a county with a 70 percent Hispanic population, was among those that turned red for the first time in decades, further solidifying the GOP’s foothold in South Florida. Today, registered Republicans outnumber Democrats statewide by over one million, marking a seismic shift in Florida’s political landscape.

While Republicans hold a commanding early lead, Democrats are not without recourse. This past weekend saw the kickoff of ‘Souls to the Polls,’ a tradition where Black and Caribbean churches encourage their congregations to vote early. The Miami Herald reported a lively scene at several polling places, where events featured music, food, and a festive atmosphere aimed at boosting turnout. Democratic organizers hope that these efforts will narrow the current voting gap and help counter the Republican lead.

They’re going to need it in Florida.

The early voting data could be a harbinger of doom for Democrats, even in deep blue areas like Leon County, where the race between Republican State Senator Cory Simon and Democratic challenger Darryl Parks is well past the boiling point. Despite Leon County’s reputation as a Democratic stronghold, early voting data shows only a narrow advantage for Democrats. This slim margin could spell trouble for Parks, as Simon’s can count on a GOP surging on Election Day. The race is being closely watched as a potential indicator of broader trends across the state, where Republicans are looking to flip or retain key seats.