A James Madison Institute poll shows U.S. Senator Rick Scott leading Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by six points in Florida’s 2024 Senate race, with 49 percent support among likely voters.

United States Senator Rick Scott holds a six-point lead over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida’s 2024 Senate race, according to a poll conducted by the James Madison Institute.

The poll, carried out from July 19 to July 24, indicates that Scott has garnered 49 percent support among likely voters, compared to Mucarsel-Powell’s 43 percent. Scott’s lead is particularly strong among Republican voters, with 86 percent of those surveyed responding with support for the incumbent senator. Mucarsel-Powell, on the other hand, has solidified her base among Democrats, securing 83 percent of their support. The race for independent and non-affiliated voters is deadlocked, with both candidates capturing 35 percent.

Scott’s strongest backing comes from Southwest Florida, where he holds 62 percent of the likely vote. Conversely, Mucarsel-Powell leads in Southeast Florida, a Democratic-leaning region, with 49 percent support compared to Scott’s 40 percent. Central Florida and Tampa Bay remain closely contested, with Scott holding an edge in Central Florida with 49 percent.

The poll also shows that 8 percent of likely voters are still unsure of their choice, leaving room for potential shifts. Among voters not classified as likely, uncertainty is even greater, with 42 percent undecided. Moreover, 4 percent of likely voters indicated they would abstain from voting in the Senate race if it were held today, a figure even more pronounced among those not considered likely voters, 19 percent of whom said they would opt out of the Senate race.

The survey sampled 1,148 registered voters, including 979 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±2.77 percent.