• Republican Maria Elvira Salazar has surmounted a polling lead over Democrat challenger Annette Taddeo in FL-27 
• Once thought to be one of the nation’s most competitive races, Cook Political Report now lists the district as “leans Republican” 
• Though Taddeo garnered momentum in the beginning days of her campaign, early voting numbers in Miami-Dade County bode well for Salazar 

In what was slated to be one of Florida’s most competitive races, the incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar is surmounting a polling lead over Democrat challenger Annette Taddeo in FL-27.

The most recent polling, conducted by Cygnal and sponsored by the Republican Leadership For a Strong America super PAC, shows Salazar maintaining a six-point lead over Taddeo.

Independent polling dating back to July reported a five-point lead for Salazar, but fell within the margin of error, leading experts to think that the race had the potential to be a toss-up.

Now, Cook Political Report lists FL-27 as a ‘lean Republican’ district, meaning that the race is competitive, but one party, in this case the Republican Party, has a clear advantage.

While the two candidates share similar platforms when it comes to foreign affairs, like when both spoke out against the delisting of FARC as a terrorist group by the federal government, differences arise when it comes to issues like abortion access.

“People know what she stands for; people know what I stand for,” Salazar said at a campaign stop this weekend, as reported by Local 10.

Taddeo terminated her gubernatorial campaign in early June, opting to run in FL-27 after it became clear the Democrat gubernatorial primary would come down to Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried.

Taddeo’s campaign has largely centered around reproductive rights and educational opportunities.

“I will be a vote to codify Roe v. Wade and we should do it, and she is not, she actually voted against it,” Taddeo said.

The competitiveness of the race is predicated on the constituents, rather than the candidates themselves. In the 2020 presidential election, the Republican Donald Trump garnered 47.97 percent of the vote within the district, while Joe Biden slightly led with 51.26 percent.

FL-27 has also flip-flopped in recent years, electing a multitude of lawmakers and officials across both ends of the political spectrum. In the last decade, FL-27 voters elected the Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Democrat Donna Shalala, and Salazar.

A July survey conducted by Floridians for Economic Advancement showed Taddeo just four points behind the incumbent. 39 percent of respondents responded in support of Salazar, while 34 percent favored Taddeo.

However, 27 percent maintained an uncertainty as to who their vote lies with, indicating that there could be a possible influx of voters for either candidate.

“In Congress, I’m not just going to stand up for our freedoms, I’ll also work across the aisle to make changes that will make our families safer, our schools better, and our economy stronger for middle-class families,” said Taddeo. “I know that we have what it takes to flip this district because Miami: I believe in us.”

Any momentum built up by Taddeo, though, seems to have died off. In simulated elections conducted by 270 To Win and Fivethirtyeight, Salazar cruises to victory.

Further, the increasing likelihood that Miami-Dade will flip red puts a damper on Taddeo’s hopes. On Election Day 2018, Democrats started the morning with a ballot advantage of 31,641. That means 34,641 more Democrats had turned in an early or mail-in ballot than Republicans.

This election cycle, Republicans had already cast 1,999,376 ballots to the Democrats’ 1,662,191 ballots for an advantage of 337,185 ballots, indicating signs of a “red wave” year.