Recent polls have shown the race for U.S. Senate to be a toss-up. But a poll released Sunday by CNN showed incumbent Bill Nelson with a 5-point lead over Gov. Rick Scott, and Monday, a Quinnipiac University survey had Nelson up by 6-points.
But, an internal survey for the Scott campaign obtained Monday afternoon suggests a different picture in the Senate race
“With two weeks until election day Gov. Scott is in the best position he’s been in this entire campaign, and is poised to win a decisive victory on November 6th,” wrote Wes Anderson, the lead pollster for the Scott campaign, in a memo dated Monday.
The internal survey shows Scott holding a 5-point, lead, 51 percent to 46 percent, which is outside the poll’s margin of error.
“Governor Scott is starting to really break away in these final 15 days,” wrote Jackie Schutz Zeckman, Scott’s campaign manager, wrote in an email. “BUT WE CANNOT LET UP. 15 days is still a lot of time. We have to fight this battle to the end and run through the finish line in a full sprint.”
The survey conducted interviews with 2,200 likely voters, which the Scott campaign describes as a “robust” sampling. The poll factors in a 1 percent Republican advantage in turnout, although the pollster’s internal memo said turnout for the election could be 2 or 3 percent above Democrats.
“For historical context, in the past two mid-term elections Republicans had a four-point advantage in 2010 and a three-point advantage in 2014,” Anderson wrote in the memo. “At R+1, that makes our current sample a very conservative take on the likely partisan composition of this year’s electorate.”
According to the Scott campaign’s internal numbers, voters approve of the job that Scott is doing by a 56 percent to 40 percent margin. The poll shows Nelson’s approval rating at 46 percent to 45 percent.
“As you may have noticed, Senator Nelson and interest groups controlled by Chuck Schumer in Washington are bombarding the airwaves with massive amounts of advertising smearing the Governor. They know they are behind, and are throwing everything they can at the Governor, with their trademark disregard for facts or truth. Some things never change of course, but the voters of Florida are not falling for it,” Anderson wrote.
The Scott campaign also asked voters who they prefer in the race for governor. The results showed Ron DeSantis currently leads Andrew Gillum by 48 percent to 45 percent..