U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a lead in Florida’s Republican primary race for governor, according to a new statewide survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), though the poll also points to uncertainty as a large bloc of voters remains undecided and political variables, including potential candidacies and endorsements, shape the field.
The survey of 657 likely Republican primary voters found Donalds supported by 28% of respondents, compared with 24% for First Lady Casey DeSantis, who is not currently a candidate. James Fishback drew 4%, Jay Collins 3%, and former House Speaker Paul Renner less than 1%, while 36% of voters said they did not yet know whom they would support.
The poll also tested how the race could shift if Casey DeSantis does not enter. Among voters who initially selected her, nearly two-thirds said they were unsure who they would back if she were not on the ballot. In that scenario, Donalds’ support increased only slightly — from 28% to 31% — while the overall undecided share climbed from 36% to 51%.
“Casey DeSantis’s entrance into the race is still possible, though she hasn’t been engaged in the fundraising we’d expect from someone interested in running,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL director and professor of political science. “Still, given her level of name recognition and the impact that has on voters, she’ll remain a factor at least until the June 15 filing deadline.”
Endorsements produced the largest movement in the survey. After respondents were told that President Donald Trump had endorsed Donalds, his support rose to 47%, while Casey DeSantis dropped to 12% and the undecided share declined to 28%.
At the same time, voters said Gov. Ron DeSantis’ endorsement could carry even more weight. Forty-two percent said his backing would matter more to them, compared with 32% who said Trump’s endorsement would matter more, while 18% said they were unsure.
The survey was conducted Feb. 16 through Feb. 20 and targeted likely Republican primary voters, defined as those who participated in at least one Republican primary since 2020.
