Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers on Wednesday lowered their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing an increased likelihood that El Niño will suppress storm development during the peak months of the season.
The university now projects 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes for the Atlantic basin this year. The updated forecast is down from CSU’s April outlook, which called for 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The new numbers are also below the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
Researchers said the primary factor behind the reduced forecast is the growing likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño by August through October, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño typically increases upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, creating vertical wind shear that can inhibit hurricane formation and intensification.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1965, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “Our analog seasons all had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity. The relative lack of activity in our analog seasons increases our confidence in a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.”
The CSU team said current Atlantic conditions are mixed. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average, while waters in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic are cooler than normal. Cooler waters tend to limit storm development, while warmer waters can help fuel tropical systems.
The forecast estimates 2026 hurricane activity at about 60% of the 1991-2020 average. The report also projects a 24% chance of a major hurricane landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline, below the historical average of 43%.
Howver, researchers cautioned that a quieter forecast does not eliminate risk for coastal communities.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell.
