For the past few months, there was a flicker of hope among Democrats nationwide—a glimmer that Vice President Kamala Harris might revive the party’s fortunes and take the fight back to Donald Trump, a task she may yet succeed with, but not as easily as some national narratives would have us believe. In fact, the initial optimism among Democrats over Harris’s “rescue” of Democratic hopes appears to be evaporating faster than a Floridian snowflake, leaving Democrats scrambling to address mounting troubles not only on the national stage but abandoning grander plans that once included Florida.

Initially, the buzz around Kamala Harris’s ascension as the Democratic nominee injected a much-needed dose of energy. National media coverage painted her as a fresh face to lead the fight against Trump, momentarily buoying spirits among Democrats. However, as the Harris hype train started to lose steam, it became clear that her campaign was facing significant headwinds. Key voter blocs—Latinos, young people, and working-class Americans—are proving elusive, leading downticket Democrats to slowly come to grips with the fact that Harris’s shrill tone and general lack of charisma means she has no coattails upon which to pin broader hopes.

A critical moment came when the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, a union that has traditionally been a stalwart supporter of Democratic candidates, chose not to endorse any presidential candidate. If Democrats can’t count on unions in battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, can they really expect to make gains in solidly red states like Florida?

Over the last several election cycles, Florida has become a Republican fortress. GOP voter registrations have consistently outpaced those of Democrats, and ballot box results have cemented Florida’s shift from swing state to a reliably red one. The numbers tell the story: since 2020, Republicans have surged past Democrats in registrations, further widening a gap that once seemed unthinkable. Despite losing ground elsewhere, Trump carried the state in 2020, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s decisive re-election in 2022 underscored this trend, as did Republican’s solidly controlling all statewide offices and dominating local races.

With this backdrop, Democrats had little reason to be optimistic about 2024. But that didn’t stop them from posturing. Former Rep. Debbie Murcarsel-Powell stepped into the ring against Republican incumbent Rick Scott. For a while, her campaign enjoyed a fleeting sense of momentum, buoyed by national headlines suggesting that Scott was vulnerable. Yet, the conversation has since gone quiet. The buzz has subsided, and the national dollars that could have bolstered her bid have failed to materialize. Most telling: polling has generally shown Scott in control of the race.

The ebbing enthusiasm in Florida can be traced directly to the national scene, where Democrats have seen their grip weaken in traditional strongholds. A recent TIME Magazine analysis painted a troubling picture: voter registration data in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada shows Democrats losing ground. For instance, in Pennsylvania, the Democratic advantage has dwindled to its slimmest margin in decades, and in Arizona, the party has lost over 2 percentage points of their registered voter share since 2020. This isn’t just a hiccup; it’s a trend that points to deeper systemic issues within the Democratic voter base, and mirrors closely what has happened in Florida in recent years.

The net result is that even with national attention briefly shining on Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign, Democrats in the Sunshine State have struggled to keep up with their Republican counterparts. The strategic shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris has not spurred the kind of grassroots energy that could help flip critical Senate seats. Rick Scott remains a formidable opponent, well-funded and seasoned, and Florida Democrats know all too well how difficult it is to topple him.

The optimism Democrats had earlier this year was always going to be a long shot in a state like Florida, but the national party’s sputtering only makes that long shot seem even more distant. Just weeks ago, for example, Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign was talking about how just $20 million might make the difference in the race. But the national party meekly admitted they would only be able to send a fraction of that figure, despite claims that her campaign represented one of the best pickup opportunities in the nation.

And so the absence of major national funding for Mucarsel-Powell speaks volumes—Democrats may have talked a big game about contesting Florida, but actions (or lack thereof) suggest they aren’t gonna put their money where their mouth is.